“WE’RE at a point in history that’s never even been dreamed of before,’’ says noted authority William F. Draper concerning the oft-predicted population crisis. “It’s just going to engulf the world.”—Science, March 1, 1974.
What is behind such dire predictions of a world population calamity, which are now echoed by growing numbers of experts? Are they merely the clamorings of alarmists? Their gloomy forecasts have been widely questioned on the ground that they have ignored offsetting forces. Furthermore, it is argued, man’s ingenuity has always prevailed before, has it not?
But population authorities claim that this problem is different from anything mankind has faced before. It is deceptive, they say, because of the way population grows. Rather than a steady, even expansion, it feeds on itself, mushrooming dramatically until, suddenly, the limits of the environment are said to be reached.
How Population Grows
What happens can be illustrated by the anecdote about a man who agreed to work for one cent the first week if his employer would double his income every week thereafter: 2c, 4c, 8c, and so on. At the end of three months he would have only about $80. But, due to the “doubling” effect, from this deceptively slow start the man would have made over $45,000,000,000,000 by the end of a year, if the world’s money supply were not exhausted!
Population grows in a similar fashion, though many other factors enter as well. It took thousands of years for earth to gain its first billion humans, in about the middle of the last century. Yet it took less than a hundred years to double that population! Just thirty more years brought another billion into the world, and fifteen years will have produced the fourth billion, in 1975! The fifth billion? Experts estimate little more than a decade—barring a “miracle”—or a disaster.
Currently, the “doubling time” of earth’s population is under thirty-five years, but that time has been shrinking! The 1974 edition of The Encyclopædia Britannica points out that certain parts of the world are now experiencing a young population “endowed with both a high birthrate and a low deathrate. Such a condition if it lasted very long would result in earth’s population being multiplied 32,000 times in only 500 years.”—Vol. 14, p. 816.
Imagine! Over 200 persons have been added to the world since you started reading this article, about 150 a minute. A city of some 200,000 since this time yesterday, a metropolis of over six million every month, or a nation the size of West Germany every year could be populated! Just think what it takes to feed, shelter, clothe, educate and provide jobs for 78 million people in one year!
Can the World Absorb Them?
The world’s ability to meet these demands grows, but not as rapidly as the population. Shortages now jolting the world are said to prove that mankind is falling behind in the race. Snowballing demands on agriculture, education, housing and other needs have brought the world from abundance to scarcity in just a few short years. Unprecedented inflation even in the wealthy “developed nations” testifies to these shortages.
Further aggravating the situation is the fact that population is now growing more than twice as rapidly in the poor “less developed nations” as it does in the rich industrial ones. Since there are already nearly three times as many people in the poor countries, they must absorb most of the overall population increase. And the half of the world’s population under twenty years of age are living primarily in those countries. Think what a baby boom could lie ahead for them!
More and more persons must share virtually the same limited resources. Growing inequalities result. This process is called “polarization,” a widening gap between opposites. In simpler terms, “the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.” Consider:
● Last year’s total value of all goods and services, or gross national product, in the 128 poorer countries was far less than the increase alone in 21 wealthy nations.
● World grain production would have to grow eightfold if the rest of the world were to eat as well as North Americans.
● There are now 100 million more illiterate persons in the world than there were in 1950.
● Less than a third of earth’s people consume over nine tenths of the world’s energy, while more than two thirds must get along on the remaining 8 percent.
How successful are efforts to narrow the gap? A report to the 1974 meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science noted that usually, when underdeveloped countries try to increase the educational level of their citizens and redistribute the wealth through land reform, productivity drops and they fall farther behind the developed nations.
As a result, says president of the World Bank Robert S. McNamara, this planet is like a ship with a quarter of its people in “luxury first-class conditions” and the other three quarters in “steerage,” the lowest-class accommodations. He said that it cannot be a “happy ship” with such inequities. Instead, it has become a breeding ground for hunger, misery, economic chaos and political ferment. Will world leaders find a solution? Some authorities believe it is already too late.
Gloomy Predictions
Growing numbers of experts believe that the crisis is rapidly coming to a head. Some even adopt a fatalistic attitude, foreseeing only a “death-rate” solution to the birthrate problem. One forecast, based on the assessment of “most experts on energy, agriculture, population and the global economy,” is that “a billion people, or fully a quarter of the earth’s population, face bankruptcy, social breakdown and mass famine within the next twelve months.”—The Denver Post, March 3, 1974.
Whether such predictions prove true or not, growing unrest over food shortages and high prices in India and the still-raging famine in Africa provide a melancholy background for their assessment. An official in Bangladesh, whose seventy-five million population is three times as dense as India’s, says that “unless we can control population here quickly, we can’t control anything. It is interwoven with our very existence, our survival as a nation.”
Social conduct is reported to be badly deteriorating in south Asia and parts of Latin America. News reports tell of “unexpected hoarding among farmers,” as well as widespread black marketing. “There is unprecedented adulteration of foods by merchants” to make them stretch farther, “sometimes with [poisonous] adulterants.” Another report says: “Bands of youths, armed with guns left over from the 1971 war, are roaming the towns and countryside in Bangladesh, committing antisocial activities unprecedented for the sensitive Bengali people.” Similarly, “bands of roving children, called ‘abandonados,’ now roam the streets of some Latin American cities like . . . packs of abandoned dogs.”
Some authorities believe that the population problem will probably make a “test case” of south Asia. One says: “The quality of life in this region has already begun to decline, with the fabric of society unraveling. And no man has been wise enough to think of a solution.”
This is certainly not because of lack of effort. Solutions have been and are being tried. What is happening to them?
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Watching the World
The Fertilizer Shortage
? Right now there is a shortage of fertilizer in the world. The best energy source for fertilizer production is natural gas. Is there enough natural gas from which to make fertilizer? A New York Times editorial notes: “Experts in this country estimate that if just one-quarter of the natural gas that is now wasted in the Persian Gulf fields were diverted into a fertilizer industry on the spot, the world’s entire current demand for nitrogen fertilizer could be met. Sheik Yamani, Saudi Arabia’s Petroleum Minister, correctly told the United Nations General Assembly last week that it is ‘improper and unconscionable’ that such a readily available fuel supply is not being fully exploited.” Will it be done?
To Heal Ulcers
? What is the most essential factor in treating ulcers? A United Press International article refers to Dr. Walter Alvarez, the syndicated columnist and emeritus professor at the University of Minnesota’s Mayo Graduate School of Medicine, as saying that “peace of mind—not good hospital care or a special diet—is the essential factor in treatment of ulcers.”
Is Today Different?
? ‘Today’s bad conditions are the same as they have always been’—at least that is what some people say. But noted writer and historian Lewis Mumford disagrees: “The situation is different now. In the past when civilizations went downhill it was a relatively local phenomenon. Rome only covered a small amount of territory, really . . . Now, with the world more closely knit and held together by modern communications, when civilization goes downhill, the whole planet goes down. Furthermore, the pace of things was slow then. The decline of Rome was a process that occurred over a number of generations . . . Now decline comes most rapidly in advanced nations.”
A Boxer’s Feelings
? Someone asks California Today the question: ‘Don’t boxers feel bad when they injure an opponent?’ In answer, they quote a former world heavyweight champion: “If I killed a man in the ring, I wouldn’t be happy about it. But I’d be glad I won the fight—and I wouldn’t have a problem sleeping that night.”
The Transsexual Phenomenon
? A hermaphrodite is an unfortunate person whose sex is ambiguous by birth; a transsexual, on the other hand, is one who, for “psychiatric” reasons, decides to undergo surgery and be physically changed from one sex to another. Regarding the latter, the comments of Albert Rosenfeld, science editor of Saturday Review/World, are appropriate: “I have been surprised to hear so little debate or discussion about the ethics of surgical sex change for purely psychiatric reasons . . . The transsexual phenomenon points up our propensity for underrating people’s willingness to accept circumstances they would once have considered outlandish—and for underestimating the speed at which this process occurs.”
Food and Energy
? It has surprised some persons to learn that the food industry is one of the largest users of energy in the U.S. But few persons take their food directly from the soil. Thus a tremendous amount of energy must be expended to get it to them. Says Science: “A typical breakfast includes orange juice from Florida by way of the . . . factory, bacon from a midwestern meat packer, cereal from Nebraska and [the cereal packager], eggs and milk from not too far away, and coffee from Colombia.’’ The U.S. customer, of course, may drive a 300-horsepower automobile several miles to a supermarket and then use energy to refrigerate the food and finally cook it for himself.
Tobacco and Gum Disease
? Research in recent years has connected tobacco usage with a number of ailments. Now a new one has been added to the list: gum disease. A study of 684 male dental patients at a Boston, Massachusetts, hospital found that the formation of calcified particles around the teeth, bone loss in the jaw and the number of loose teeth were much higher in the smokers than in nonsmokers. Incidentally, gum disease, not cavities, is the main cause of tooth loss in adults.
Shaky Peace
? Why is it that, in spite of talk about worldwide peace, there are more devastating weapons of destruction being made? Experts say that this is to prevent “international blackmail” from being brought on by the opposite side; in other words, no one trusts anybody else. Herman Kahn is quoted in Newsweek as observing: “If you have a crisis, both sides say something like this: ‘Look, nothing at issue is worth the serious risk of nuclear war. It’s just crazy for us to continue this terrible crisis. One of us has to be reasonable and it isn’t going to be me.’”
Religious “Horse Race”
? The choice of a new archbishop of Canterbury has interested Britons in more than one way. Some of them have been taking gambling odds on who would win the position in what has come to be called “the Canterbury stakes.” The wife of Bishop Robert Runcie of St. Albans says: “The whole thing is extremely embarrassing. It’s revolting to turn important church affairs into a horse race.” The gamblers have considered her husband only a 6-to-1 middle runner in the race.
Fruits of Involvement
? “Every individual Christian in this part of Africa must involve himself in a political party,” says the Anglican bishop of Botswana, S. Mallory. And what happens when they do? Well, over to the east, in the Mozambique town of Nampula, the residents expelled six Catholic missionaries from the country. Why? Apparently they did get involved in politics. The Rhodesia Herald says they are accused of “subversive activities.”
Modern “Crucifixion”
? For the sixth Good Friday in a row the “crucifixion” was actually reenacted in San Fernando, the Philippines, as Juanito Piring was nailed to a cross and held aloft, blood dripping from his hands. Piring considers his actions an atonement for his sins and “a sacrifice for the extension of life of my mother and my sick child.” Over 4,000 persons watched the spectacle, dozens flagellating themselves with scourges and broken glass.
Pierced Ears and Hepatitis
? A medical research team headed by Dr. Carl Johnson of the Jefferson County Health Department in Colorado has found that hepatitis can sometimes be contracted when ears are pierced for earrings. The group says that some physicians still use “cold sterilization” methods in an attempt to destroy the hepatitis virus on soiled needles before these are used on another patient. Johnson observes that instrument sterilization should be done in an autoclave or by boiling for twenty minutes to destroy the virus.
Someone Agrees with the Pope
? Pope Paul VI recently spoke of Mary, the mother of Jesus, as a model for women’s liberation. Thereafter a unit of NOW (National Organization for Women) in the U.S. stated that it shared the pope’s views. However, Joyce Mitchell, national coordinator of the group, says NOW does not agree with someone else’s views on the subject. Who? “The NOW task force on women and religion will no longer accept St. Paul’s statement” on the position of women, as stated in the Bible. Does the pope “accept St. Paul’s statement”?
Catholics and Genesis
? There was a time when the Catholic Church at least outwardly claimed to believe the Bible. And now? Well, consider the statement by Msgr. Raymond Bosler printed in The Florida Catholic: “The first chapters of Genesis do not give an historical account of the beginning of the human race . . . Previously Christians interpreted the Genesis account more literally. Councils of the church, such as Trent, assumed that Adam was the father of the human race.” But obviously the Catholic Church views the Bible differently now.
Catholic Evangelists
? Catholic evangelizing successes, they themselves admit, are limited. When five U.S. parishes in Mississippi took part in a 12-week evangelizing experiment, the National Catholic Reporter says the result “was not overly satisfying.” “Evangelization,” says Italy’s Il Giorno, is “the main crisis of the Church, at the root of everything else.” The pope has called a synod of bishops to deal with the problem in September. Meanwhile, a Jesuit editor of America magazine, R. Blake, thinks the Church can learn from Madison Avenue advertising techniques: “If the television industry can motivate people more effectively with cat food commercials than we can with the sermon on the mount, then it stands to reason we have a lot to learn from them.”
Is This Living?
? Some grown-ups in the ‘developed world’ have been sick only on rare occasions in their life. They may conclude that medicine has “conquered” man’s fundamental ailments. But that is not so. A current issue of World Health, the magazine of the U.N.’s World Health Organization, describes a “typical example” of a two-year-old South American infant from a poorer family. This child, the report says, “has had six attacks of infection of the eyes, five attacks of diarrhoea, ten infections of the upper respiratory passage, four attacks of bronchitis, measles followed by broncho-pneumonia and an episode of stomatitis. In 24 months, this child has had nearly 30 attacks of illness and has had one infection or another for about a third of his life . . . he is almost a year behind in physical development.”
Lutherans Want Help
? Members of the Lutheran Church of America (LCA) admit that they seem unable to apply Christian principles in their daily lives. The organization’s Consulting Committee on Study of Theological Affirmations, after receiving more than 10,000 written responses and conducting hundreds of hours of personal interviews, says: “As LCA members, we have faith in God and we have an involvement in the world, but we have difficulty putting the two together. We sometimes see Christ in the heavens on Sundays, but we do not know how to recognize him in a brother or sister on Monday. We need help in moving from the heavens above to the earth below.”
Grain for Whiskey
? North Americans consume a tremendous amount of grain both directly, as, for example, flour in bakery products, and also indirectly, as feed for cattle and other meat animals. But they have used grain in another way too. Says the Milwaukee Journal: “The amount of grain used in distilling [whiskey and other spirits] in the US would keep 500,000 people in south Asia alive for one year at their present diet levels.”
‘Clergy Are Worldly’
? Why are so many people forsaking the “Christian Churches”? In London’s Daily Telegraph Magazine, journalist A. Lejeune offers one explanation: “Such clergymen are worldly . . . they have consciously chosen to concern themselves mainly with the affairs of this world . . . Not surprisingly, a lot of young people are turning away from this welfare state version of Christianity towards mysticism and the religions of the East . . . Men thirst for a kingdom which is not of this world: and, if the Christian Church no longer offers it, they will seek it elsewhere. Increasingly, I remember the advice given by Professor Jowett, the great Master of Balliol, a century ago: ‘You really must believe in God, my dear, in spite of what the clergy say.’”
? Right now there is a shortage of fertilizer in the world. The best energy source for fertilizer production is natural gas. Is there enough natural gas from which to make fertilizer? A New York Times editorial notes: “Experts in this country estimate that if just one-quarter of the natural gas that is now wasted in the Persian Gulf fields were diverted into a fertilizer industry on the spot, the world’s entire current demand for nitrogen fertilizer could be met. Sheik Yamani, Saudi Arabia’s Petroleum Minister, correctly told the United Nations General Assembly last week that it is ‘improper and unconscionable’ that such a readily available fuel supply is not being fully exploited.” Will it be done?
To Heal Ulcers
? What is the most essential factor in treating ulcers? A United Press International article refers to Dr. Walter Alvarez, the syndicated columnist and emeritus professor at the University of Minnesota’s Mayo Graduate School of Medicine, as saying that “peace of mind—not good hospital care or a special diet—is the essential factor in treatment of ulcers.”
Is Today Different?
? ‘Today’s bad conditions are the same as they have always been’—at least that is what some people say. But noted writer and historian Lewis Mumford disagrees: “The situation is different now. In the past when civilizations went downhill it was a relatively local phenomenon. Rome only covered a small amount of territory, really . . . Now, with the world more closely knit and held together by modern communications, when civilization goes downhill, the whole planet goes down. Furthermore, the pace of things was slow then. The decline of Rome was a process that occurred over a number of generations . . . Now decline comes most rapidly in advanced nations.”
A Boxer’s Feelings
? Someone asks California Today the question: ‘Don’t boxers feel bad when they injure an opponent?’ In answer, they quote a former world heavyweight champion: “If I killed a man in the ring, I wouldn’t be happy about it. But I’d be glad I won the fight—and I wouldn’t have a problem sleeping that night.”
The Transsexual Phenomenon
? A hermaphrodite is an unfortunate person whose sex is ambiguous by birth; a transsexual, on the other hand, is one who, for “psychiatric” reasons, decides to undergo surgery and be physically changed from one sex to another. Regarding the latter, the comments of Albert Rosenfeld, science editor of Saturday Review/World, are appropriate: “I have been surprised to hear so little debate or discussion about the ethics of surgical sex change for purely psychiatric reasons . . . The transsexual phenomenon points up our propensity for underrating people’s willingness to accept circumstances they would once have considered outlandish—and for underestimating the speed at which this process occurs.”
Food and Energy
? It has surprised some persons to learn that the food industry is one of the largest users of energy in the U.S. But few persons take their food directly from the soil. Thus a tremendous amount of energy must be expended to get it to them. Says Science: “A typical breakfast includes orange juice from Florida by way of the . . . factory, bacon from a midwestern meat packer, cereal from Nebraska and [the cereal packager], eggs and milk from not too far away, and coffee from Colombia.’’ The U.S. customer, of course, may drive a 300-horsepower automobile several miles to a supermarket and then use energy to refrigerate the food and finally cook it for himself.
Tobacco and Gum Disease
? Research in recent years has connected tobacco usage with a number of ailments. Now a new one has been added to the list: gum disease. A study of 684 male dental patients at a Boston, Massachusetts, hospital found that the formation of calcified particles around the teeth, bone loss in the jaw and the number of loose teeth were much higher in the smokers than in nonsmokers. Incidentally, gum disease, not cavities, is the main cause of tooth loss in adults.
Shaky Peace
? Why is it that, in spite of talk about worldwide peace, there are more devastating weapons of destruction being made? Experts say that this is to prevent “international blackmail” from being brought on by the opposite side; in other words, no one trusts anybody else. Herman Kahn is quoted in Newsweek as observing: “If you have a crisis, both sides say something like this: ‘Look, nothing at issue is worth the serious risk of nuclear war. It’s just crazy for us to continue this terrible crisis. One of us has to be reasonable and it isn’t going to be me.’”
Religious “Horse Race”
? The choice of a new archbishop of Canterbury has interested Britons in more than one way. Some of them have been taking gambling odds on who would win the position in what has come to be called “the Canterbury stakes.” The wife of Bishop Robert Runcie of St. Albans says: “The whole thing is extremely embarrassing. It’s revolting to turn important church affairs into a horse race.” The gamblers have considered her husband only a 6-to-1 middle runner in the race.
Fruits of Involvement
? “Every individual Christian in this part of Africa must involve himself in a political party,” says the Anglican bishop of Botswana, S. Mallory. And what happens when they do? Well, over to the east, in the Mozambique town of Nampula, the residents expelled six Catholic missionaries from the country. Why? Apparently they did get involved in politics. The Rhodesia Herald says they are accused of “subversive activities.”
Modern “Crucifixion”
? For the sixth Good Friday in a row the “crucifixion” was actually reenacted in San Fernando, the Philippines, as Juanito Piring was nailed to a cross and held aloft, blood dripping from his hands. Piring considers his actions an atonement for his sins and “a sacrifice for the extension of life of my mother and my sick child.” Over 4,000 persons watched the spectacle, dozens flagellating themselves with scourges and broken glass.
Pierced Ears and Hepatitis
? A medical research team headed by Dr. Carl Johnson of the Jefferson County Health Department in Colorado has found that hepatitis can sometimes be contracted when ears are pierced for earrings. The group says that some physicians still use “cold sterilization” methods in an attempt to destroy the hepatitis virus on soiled needles before these are used on another patient. Johnson observes that instrument sterilization should be done in an autoclave or by boiling for twenty minutes to destroy the virus.
Someone Agrees with the Pope
? Pope Paul VI recently spoke of Mary, the mother of Jesus, as a model for women’s liberation. Thereafter a unit of NOW (National Organization for Women) in the U.S. stated that it shared the pope’s views. However, Joyce Mitchell, national coordinator of the group, says NOW does not agree with someone else’s views on the subject. Who? “The NOW task force on women and religion will no longer accept St. Paul’s statement” on the position of women, as stated in the Bible. Does the pope “accept St. Paul’s statement”?
Catholics and Genesis
? There was a time when the Catholic Church at least outwardly claimed to believe the Bible. And now? Well, consider the statement by Msgr. Raymond Bosler printed in The Florida Catholic: “The first chapters of Genesis do not give an historical account of the beginning of the human race . . . Previously Christians interpreted the Genesis account more literally. Councils of the church, such as Trent, assumed that Adam was the father of the human race.” But obviously the Catholic Church views the Bible differently now.
Catholic Evangelists
? Catholic evangelizing successes, they themselves admit, are limited. When five U.S. parishes in Mississippi took part in a 12-week evangelizing experiment, the National Catholic Reporter says the result “was not overly satisfying.” “Evangelization,” says Italy’s Il Giorno, is “the main crisis of the Church, at the root of everything else.” The pope has called a synod of bishops to deal with the problem in September. Meanwhile, a Jesuit editor of America magazine, R. Blake, thinks the Church can learn from Madison Avenue advertising techniques: “If the television industry can motivate people more effectively with cat food commercials than we can with the sermon on the mount, then it stands to reason we have a lot to learn from them.”
Is This Living?
? Some grown-ups in the ‘developed world’ have been sick only on rare occasions in their life. They may conclude that medicine has “conquered” man’s fundamental ailments. But that is not so. A current issue of World Health, the magazine of the U.N.’s World Health Organization, describes a “typical example” of a two-year-old South American infant from a poorer family. This child, the report says, “has had six attacks of infection of the eyes, five attacks of diarrhoea, ten infections of the upper respiratory passage, four attacks of bronchitis, measles followed by broncho-pneumonia and an episode of stomatitis. In 24 months, this child has had nearly 30 attacks of illness and has had one infection or another for about a third of his life . . . he is almost a year behind in physical development.”
Lutherans Want Help
? Members of the Lutheran Church of America (LCA) admit that they seem unable to apply Christian principles in their daily lives. The organization’s Consulting Committee on Study of Theological Affirmations, after receiving more than 10,000 written responses and conducting hundreds of hours of personal interviews, says: “As LCA members, we have faith in God and we have an involvement in the world, but we have difficulty putting the two together. We sometimes see Christ in the heavens on Sundays, but we do not know how to recognize him in a brother or sister on Monday. We need help in moving from the heavens above to the earth below.”
Grain for Whiskey
? North Americans consume a tremendous amount of grain both directly, as, for example, flour in bakery products, and also indirectly, as feed for cattle and other meat animals. But they have used grain in another way too. Says the Milwaukee Journal: “The amount of grain used in distilling [whiskey and other spirits] in the US would keep 500,000 people in south Asia alive for one year at their present diet levels.”
‘Clergy Are Worldly’
? Why are so many people forsaking the “Christian Churches”? In London’s Daily Telegraph Magazine, journalist A. Lejeune offers one explanation: “Such clergymen are worldly . . . they have consciously chosen to concern themselves mainly with the affairs of this world . . . Not surprisingly, a lot of young people are turning away from this welfare state version of Christianity towards mysticism and the religions of the East . . . Men thirst for a kingdom which is not of this world: and, if the Christian Church no longer offers it, they will seek it elsewhere. Increasingly, I remember the advice given by Professor Jowett, the great Master of Balliol, a century ago: ‘You really must believe in God, my dear, in spite of what the clergy say.’”
Watching the World
“Global Emergency”
? U.N. Secretary-General Waldheim opened the recent special session of the General Assembly by saying that, though world forces leading up to it have been building up for a long time, “what is new is the sudden and dramatic urgency of the present situation and the acute acceleration of the historical process which has brought us face to face with a global emergency.” Enumerating the problems of poverty, population, food, energy, militarism and economics, he said that most had been discussed internationally for many years. “But the sense of urgency—even of emergency—is relatively new, for the events of recent months have dramatized the dangers of drift and inaction in such a way as to alarm all governments.”
Wheat Demand
? Will the United States be able to make a comeback this year as the world’s granary with huge surpluses of wheat? A broker at the Chicago Board of Trade wheat pit says of the export buyers: “Not only were they there, but they began buying like crazy—and never backed off.” A grain expert noted one order for two million tons. “That’s just one order,” he said, “but it is about a fifth of the additional wheat the nation hopes to harvest in 1974. It tells us that no matter how much we produce, the world demand keeps catching up.”
Violent Times
? Serious crime took a 5-percent leap in the U.S. in 1973. The last three months were particularly alarming, as it rose 16 percent over the same period in 1972. Attorney General William Saxbe comments: “I personally feel serious crime is up, . . . and I’m not going to try to whoosh it away by saying we’re getting better reporting.” (Recent government studies indicate that about half of all crimes are reported.) “The renewed upsurge . . . is very disturbing to me because the statistics give no clue as to what is causing it.” London also reports a 13-percent increase in violent crime for last year.
Church-backed Rebellion
? Canadian Anglican priest W. Maultsaid was sent to British Honduras to help organize economic development projects. He reported to church members that some church funds were put to use in “support of an underground opposition to the party dominating local politics,” says the Saskatoon Star-Phoenix. A group of Canadian laymen have organized a protest against Catholic and Protestant “charity” drives that use donated money to support worldwide terrorist movements. A spokesman for the group says: “This horrifies me—because the churches’ work is the saving of individual souls. I don’t think they should be involved in political activity, including the killing of blacks or whites.”
Religion’s “Gay Crusade”
? The National Federation of (Catholic) Priests’ Councils recently urged the repeal of civil laws that make “homosexual acts between [consenting] adults” a crime. Their resolution on this also asks that special effort be made in assisting homosexuals “to find employment in the church consistent with their abilities and desires.” Meanwhile, the United Methodist Council on Youth Ministry declares that homosexuality should “not be a bar to the ministry.” The Bible disagrees.—1 Cor. 6:9, 10.
Brazil’s Flood
? “This used to be a paradise with all the possibilities of becoming a dynamic center for the entire region,” said the president of the Education Foundation of Tubarão, Brazil. About 90 percent of the city of 70,000 was destroyed or badly damaged by the flood that recently ravaged the area. In the region, 500 to 1,000 persons are believed to be dead or missing, as well as about 50,000 cattle. The rains, following months of drought, also heavily damaged crops in this southern farming area.
Jewish Family Problem
? From 1900 to 1965 the number of U.S. Jews marrying non-Jews rose from about one in 100 to one in 10. Now about one in 3 do so. The British chief rabbi, fearing Jewish extinction, says: “The worst cancer is the painless type . . . Intermarriage is such a scourge.” The New York Board of Rabbis voted to oust colleagues who perform mixed marriages, and its president says that to keep the Jewish community growing “three children should be the minimum number for Jewish families . . . but the larger the better.” Is this concern for survival religious? Typically, an Australian Jewess says her atheist husband would “feel very upset if his children didn’t marry Jews. But not because of any religious feeling at all.”
Planetary Surprises
? Four of the eight planets other than earth in our solar system have been visited recently at close range by picture-taking spacecraft. Now scientists are busy reexamining old theories. Mercury, closest to the sun, surprises them; it seems to have a weak magnetic field and a thin atmosphere. Venus apparently has almost no magnetic field, but is covered with hot clouds swirling continuously at hundreds of miles per hour. Mars’ 200-mile-per-hour dust storms come seasonally, as do immense polar ice caps; but its lack of liquid water challenges theories about life there. A 15-mile-high volcano dwarfs Mount Everest. Giant Jupiter seems to have two magnetic fields, the outer one buffeted back as much as a million miles or more when the sun sends out strong bursts of “solar wind.”
Cancer Comparison
? Soviet cancer deaths reported by Vestnik Statistiki are said to be the lowest among industrial nations. Though there has been a steady increase in the death rate, by 1972 it was 129.6 per 100,000 population, about 22 percent less than the U.S. figure. A sharp increase in the Russian male death rate was attributed to lung cancer from smoking. Similar to the U.S., male deaths from lung cancer were said to be five times those of women. The subduing of most childhood diseases has now made cancer the number one killer of children ages one to 14 in the United States.
Smoking Paradox
? U.S. government efforts to discourage smoking by banning radio and television advertising of cigarettes are losing ground while their efforts to help tobacco farming are gaining. The U.S. Department of Agriculture reports that 1973 marks the third year in a row of rising cigarette consumption. The 4.6-percent rise to a record 591 billion far outstrips population growth and represents an average of more than 2,800 cigarettes for each person in the country! Meanwhile, “agriculture officials said government price supports for 1974 tobacco will be 8.7 percent above last year’s rates,” reports the Detroit News.
Plasma Hepatitis
? How safe are blood products? Of 52 patients at an Indiana hospital recently, 19 developed viral hepatitis after being given a plasma protein product. The manufacturer has recalled the product.
“A Job for the Creator”
? Two of the world’s most famous heart surgeons recently commented on the future of transplants. Dr. Michael E. DeBakey says: “I think the general interest as far as heart transplants is concerned has diminished greatly because of the experience that we had . . . The results were not sufficiently good to justify the effort.” Dr. Denton A. Cooley observes: “Although we have been able to replace all the components of the heart, the only part we cannot replace is the heart muscle . . . It seems that is a job for the creator . . . That seems to be the frontier beyond which we have not been able to advance.”
China’s “Barefoot Doctors”
? Shanghai’s Bureau of Public Health figures indicated a life expectancy of about 70 years there, up from about 40 years in the 1930’s. Some of the improvement in health care, especially in rural areas, is said to be from the efforts of more than a million chijiao yisheng, “barefoot doctors.” These workers are given several months’ initial training followed by continued on-the-job education in the treatment of “light diseases” and minor injuries. China Reconstructs magazine reports that in 1973 these health workers handled 65 percent of all the out-patient visits in one typical county. More serious ailments are referred to professional physicians.
Value of IQ Scores
? Do the average lower IQ scores of blacks compared with whites indicate inherited lower intelligence? A recent article in Science magazine indicates No. It presents much evidence showing that no reliable way has been found to test intelligence that is unaffected by “cultural differences and differences in psychological environment. . . . The IQ scores themselves contain uncontrollable, systematic errors of unknown magnitude. . . . these errors are apparent in the very large discrepancies” among measurements by different investigators. It notes in conclusion that “no valid inferences can be drawn” to prove genetic inferiority, and that research to this end “is scientifically worthless.”
Evangelism and Belief
? Christendom’s churches often talk about the need for ‘spreading the Gospel.’ But why are their actual efforts at evangelism so weak? Presbyterian George Sweazey, professor of evangelism at Princeton Seminary, notes: “People are saying that if the theologians aren’t sure about what they believe anymore, how can [the people] be. . . . You have to offer them something clear, definite and real to believe in.”
Carnival Carnage
? Four days of frantic celebrating in the name of religion recently produced a violent death toll of 170 in Rio de Janeiro. The sharply higher than usual toll resulted from assaults and accidents. Until carnival revelry officially ended at noon on Roman Catholic Ash Wednesday, millions “went on a final, all-night binge of wild samba dancing,” reports the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, “the women in bikinis and flimsy, transparent dresses, many of the men bare-chested.”
“Smoked” Babies
? Pregnant mothers who smoke can undermine their children’s futures, according to the British Medical Journal. Children whose mothers smoke ten or more cigarettes each day are, on the average, as much as one half inch shorter and five months slower in mental abilities than their “unsmoked” peers at ages seven and eleven. The Canadian Medical Association Journal notes a study revealing a reduced average birth weight among babies born to smoking mothers, and a 24-percent higher risk of death near the time of the baby’s birth. Another study of 17,000 Canadian births notes a 50-percent greater risk of congenital heart defects among the “smoked” babies.
Channel Tunnel
? British workmen have begun operations at Dover to dig the access route for the proposed 20-mile underwater tunnel between Britain and France. The work, already begun in Sangatte, France, last November 15, is projected for completion some time in 1980. Optimistically, British Railways has already sold tickets on the train scheduled to take passengers under the Straits of Dover.
Near Miss
? A 1,000-ton meteor passed across U.S. and Canadian sides on August 10, 1972. A recent report reveals that a U.S. Air Force satellite also saw it from above. The 13-foot meteor had come within 36 miles of the earth’s surface at a speed of 33,000 miles per hour! One expert says that a hit on earth would have rivaled the atomic bomb blasts of World War II.
? U.N. Secretary-General Waldheim opened the recent special session of the General Assembly by saying that, though world forces leading up to it have been building up for a long time, “what is new is the sudden and dramatic urgency of the present situation and the acute acceleration of the historical process which has brought us face to face with a global emergency.” Enumerating the problems of poverty, population, food, energy, militarism and economics, he said that most had been discussed internationally for many years. “But the sense of urgency—even of emergency—is relatively new, for the events of recent months have dramatized the dangers of drift and inaction in such a way as to alarm all governments.”
Wheat Demand
? Will the United States be able to make a comeback this year as the world’s granary with huge surpluses of wheat? A broker at the Chicago Board of Trade wheat pit says of the export buyers: “Not only were they there, but they began buying like crazy—and never backed off.” A grain expert noted one order for two million tons. “That’s just one order,” he said, “but it is about a fifth of the additional wheat the nation hopes to harvest in 1974. It tells us that no matter how much we produce, the world demand keeps catching up.”
Violent Times
? Serious crime took a 5-percent leap in the U.S. in 1973. The last three months were particularly alarming, as it rose 16 percent over the same period in 1972. Attorney General William Saxbe comments: “I personally feel serious crime is up, . . . and I’m not going to try to whoosh it away by saying we’re getting better reporting.” (Recent government studies indicate that about half of all crimes are reported.) “The renewed upsurge . . . is very disturbing to me because the statistics give no clue as to what is causing it.” London also reports a 13-percent increase in violent crime for last year.
Church-backed Rebellion
? Canadian Anglican priest W. Maultsaid was sent to British Honduras to help organize economic development projects. He reported to church members that some church funds were put to use in “support of an underground opposition to the party dominating local politics,” says the Saskatoon Star-Phoenix. A group of Canadian laymen have organized a protest against Catholic and Protestant “charity” drives that use donated money to support worldwide terrorist movements. A spokesman for the group says: “This horrifies me—because the churches’ work is the saving of individual souls. I don’t think they should be involved in political activity, including the killing of blacks or whites.”
Religion’s “Gay Crusade”
? The National Federation of (Catholic) Priests’ Councils recently urged the repeal of civil laws that make “homosexual acts between [consenting] adults” a crime. Their resolution on this also asks that special effort be made in assisting homosexuals “to find employment in the church consistent with their abilities and desires.” Meanwhile, the United Methodist Council on Youth Ministry declares that homosexuality should “not be a bar to the ministry.” The Bible disagrees.—1 Cor. 6:9, 10.
Brazil’s Flood
? “This used to be a paradise with all the possibilities of becoming a dynamic center for the entire region,” said the president of the Education Foundation of Tubarão, Brazil. About 90 percent of the city of 70,000 was destroyed or badly damaged by the flood that recently ravaged the area. In the region, 500 to 1,000 persons are believed to be dead or missing, as well as about 50,000 cattle. The rains, following months of drought, also heavily damaged crops in this southern farming area.
Jewish Family Problem
? From 1900 to 1965 the number of U.S. Jews marrying non-Jews rose from about one in 100 to one in 10. Now about one in 3 do so. The British chief rabbi, fearing Jewish extinction, says: “The worst cancer is the painless type . . . Intermarriage is such a scourge.” The New York Board of Rabbis voted to oust colleagues who perform mixed marriages, and its president says that to keep the Jewish community growing “three children should be the minimum number for Jewish families . . . but the larger the better.” Is this concern for survival religious? Typically, an Australian Jewess says her atheist husband would “feel very upset if his children didn’t marry Jews. But not because of any religious feeling at all.”
Planetary Surprises
? Four of the eight planets other than earth in our solar system have been visited recently at close range by picture-taking spacecraft. Now scientists are busy reexamining old theories. Mercury, closest to the sun, surprises them; it seems to have a weak magnetic field and a thin atmosphere. Venus apparently has almost no magnetic field, but is covered with hot clouds swirling continuously at hundreds of miles per hour. Mars’ 200-mile-per-hour dust storms come seasonally, as do immense polar ice caps; but its lack of liquid water challenges theories about life there. A 15-mile-high volcano dwarfs Mount Everest. Giant Jupiter seems to have two magnetic fields, the outer one buffeted back as much as a million miles or more when the sun sends out strong bursts of “solar wind.”
Cancer Comparison
? Soviet cancer deaths reported by Vestnik Statistiki are said to be the lowest among industrial nations. Though there has been a steady increase in the death rate, by 1972 it was 129.6 per 100,000 population, about 22 percent less than the U.S. figure. A sharp increase in the Russian male death rate was attributed to lung cancer from smoking. Similar to the U.S., male deaths from lung cancer were said to be five times those of women. The subduing of most childhood diseases has now made cancer the number one killer of children ages one to 14 in the United States.
Smoking Paradox
? U.S. government efforts to discourage smoking by banning radio and television advertising of cigarettes are losing ground while their efforts to help tobacco farming are gaining. The U.S. Department of Agriculture reports that 1973 marks the third year in a row of rising cigarette consumption. The 4.6-percent rise to a record 591 billion far outstrips population growth and represents an average of more than 2,800 cigarettes for each person in the country! Meanwhile, “agriculture officials said government price supports for 1974 tobacco will be 8.7 percent above last year’s rates,” reports the Detroit News.
Plasma Hepatitis
? How safe are blood products? Of 52 patients at an Indiana hospital recently, 19 developed viral hepatitis after being given a plasma protein product. The manufacturer has recalled the product.
“A Job for the Creator”
? Two of the world’s most famous heart surgeons recently commented on the future of transplants. Dr. Michael E. DeBakey says: “I think the general interest as far as heart transplants is concerned has diminished greatly because of the experience that we had . . . The results were not sufficiently good to justify the effort.” Dr. Denton A. Cooley observes: “Although we have been able to replace all the components of the heart, the only part we cannot replace is the heart muscle . . . It seems that is a job for the creator . . . That seems to be the frontier beyond which we have not been able to advance.”
China’s “Barefoot Doctors”
? Shanghai’s Bureau of Public Health figures indicated a life expectancy of about 70 years there, up from about 40 years in the 1930’s. Some of the improvement in health care, especially in rural areas, is said to be from the efforts of more than a million chijiao yisheng, “barefoot doctors.” These workers are given several months’ initial training followed by continued on-the-job education in the treatment of “light diseases” and minor injuries. China Reconstructs magazine reports that in 1973 these health workers handled 65 percent of all the out-patient visits in one typical county. More serious ailments are referred to professional physicians.
Value of IQ Scores
? Do the average lower IQ scores of blacks compared with whites indicate inherited lower intelligence? A recent article in Science magazine indicates No. It presents much evidence showing that no reliable way has been found to test intelligence that is unaffected by “cultural differences and differences in psychological environment. . . . The IQ scores themselves contain uncontrollable, systematic errors of unknown magnitude. . . . these errors are apparent in the very large discrepancies” among measurements by different investigators. It notes in conclusion that “no valid inferences can be drawn” to prove genetic inferiority, and that research to this end “is scientifically worthless.”
Evangelism and Belief
? Christendom’s churches often talk about the need for ‘spreading the Gospel.’ But why are their actual efforts at evangelism so weak? Presbyterian George Sweazey, professor of evangelism at Princeton Seminary, notes: “People are saying that if the theologians aren’t sure about what they believe anymore, how can [the people] be. . . . You have to offer them something clear, definite and real to believe in.”
Carnival Carnage
? Four days of frantic celebrating in the name of religion recently produced a violent death toll of 170 in Rio de Janeiro. The sharply higher than usual toll resulted from assaults and accidents. Until carnival revelry officially ended at noon on Roman Catholic Ash Wednesday, millions “went on a final, all-night binge of wild samba dancing,” reports the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, “the women in bikinis and flimsy, transparent dresses, many of the men bare-chested.”
“Smoked” Babies
? Pregnant mothers who smoke can undermine their children’s futures, according to the British Medical Journal. Children whose mothers smoke ten or more cigarettes each day are, on the average, as much as one half inch shorter and five months slower in mental abilities than their “unsmoked” peers at ages seven and eleven. The Canadian Medical Association Journal notes a study revealing a reduced average birth weight among babies born to smoking mothers, and a 24-percent higher risk of death near the time of the baby’s birth. Another study of 17,000 Canadian births notes a 50-percent greater risk of congenital heart defects among the “smoked” babies.
Channel Tunnel
? British workmen have begun operations at Dover to dig the access route for the proposed 20-mile underwater tunnel between Britain and France. The work, already begun in Sangatte, France, last November 15, is projected for completion some time in 1980. Optimistically, British Railways has already sold tickets on the train scheduled to take passengers under the Straits of Dover.
Near Miss
? A 1,000-ton meteor passed across U.S. and Canadian sides on August 10, 1972. A recent report reveals that a U.S. Air Force satellite also saw it from above. The 13-foot meteor had come within 36 miles of the earth’s surface at a speed of 33,000 miles per hour! One expert says that a hit on earth would have rivaled the atomic bomb blasts of World War II.
Can Earthquakes Be Predicted?
OUR home the earth is jolted by a million earthquakes every year. Most of us are unaware of the majority of them. Less than one third are perceptible to humans. Nevertheless, one or two thousand cause destruction.
In a few seconds a large quake can shake a major city to rubble and bury thousands of persons in their own homes, schools and stores. Thus, knowing precisely in advance where and when earthquakes will take place could save countless lives.
Men have for long observed “nature” and tried to predict earthquakes. They know, for example, that dogs begin howing before a quake and that the timing of some water geysers speeds up. But long-range warnings are vital so that large metropolitan areas can be evacuated in advance.
Recent findings have stimulated the hopes of some persons that the day is at hand when men may be able to foresee earthquakes. What have they found? Before that question is answered, let us discuss what earthquakes really are.
What Is an Earthquake?
Simply stated, an earthquake is a shaking or quaking of the earth. There have been numerous conjectures about their causes. Ancient Japanese mythology blamed the movement of a spider that carried the earth on its back. Mongolians anciently attributed earthquakes to the unsteady support of a giant hog.
Even in comparatively recent times scientific theories as to their cause have come and gone. And today? Earthquakes are believed to result from a sudden dislocation in the earth’s crust. What causes the shift? Opinions vary. But one view gaining wider acceptance is that the earth’s crust is not rigid, but is made up of a series of “plates” that move over the earth’s “mantle.”
According to this view, when these “plates” (which are several miles thick) collide, one slides under the other, bending rocks in the process. In other cases, the horizontal action of these “plates” passing one another exerts tremendous pressure on crystal rock. Such movements occur along a “fault” or fracture in the earth’s surface. Then, it is believed, when the crust can no longer tolerate the strain, it “snaps” into a new position.
If the region above the rupture is heavily populated, there may be destruction, injury and death. The extent of the damage depends on the quake’s “magnitude,” that is, the power it releases, its location and other factors. The “snapping” sets off jarring energy vibrations called shock waves that travel through the earth at the speed of several miles per second. These waves are detected by sensitive instruments called seismographs.
On the basis of seismograph readings the earthquake’s magnitude is expressed on the Richter Scale, a logarithmic scale. A reading of 7 signifies a disturbance ten times as great as a reading of 6, which is, itself, ten times as great as 5. Any reading over 6 is considered to be an earthquake of major magnitude. Only one or two earthquakes each year will reach 8.
But now, what about those recent findings that some people believe will make earthquake prediction possible?
Current Efforts at Prediction
Scientists from several nations are trying to use knowledge of how seismic waves travel through the earth to predict where and when earthquakes will occur. A recent discovery reveals that just before strained rock breaks, it is laced with tiny fractures, slightly swelling the rock. As certain seismic waves generated by small earthquakes travel through the earth, they seem to slow up in these particular rocks. Then, a short time before an earthquake, the waves resume normal speed. Knowing this pattern, scientists hope to be able to spot weaknesses in the earth’s crust.
Other experts are studying electrical resistance in subterranean rocks and the level of radon (a naturally occurring radioactive gas) in well water to find a key to earthquake prediction. There is also anticipation of being able to interpret imminent earthquakes from certain bulges detected on the surface of the earth from space.
However, even the most optimistic students of the subject are cautious not to say that any sure system of earthquake prediction is near at hand. As Dr. C. B. Archambeau, a professor of geophysics at Caltech, observes: “There is still a feeling that an earthquake is so complicated and diverse that it might be impossible to untangle all its phenomena to build a predictive system.” A Los Angeles Times science writer, George Alexander, put it more simply: “An infallible system is all but impossible.”
This is not to say that men cannot predict earthquakes with some degree of accuracy. They can.
Men Accurately Predict Some Earthquakes
They now believe that they know where most of the world’s earthquakes will probably occur—that is, the general areas. Some 80 percent take place in what is called “the ring of fire,” land bordering the Pacific Ocean. Most remaining shocks occur in a zone extending from the Mediterranean Sea across Asia.
Only in this broad sense can men predict earthquakes with a fair degree of accuracy. But even here there is room for error. No location on this planet is really earthquake-free. One of the most powerful series of quake shocks on record occurred in New Madrid, Missouri, in the United States Midwest in 1811-1812. Men would not ordinarily predict such an earthquake far from either of the two major quake zones.
But does not the Bible show that Jesus predicted earthquakes? Are his prophecies in this respect reliable?
Jesus’ Earthquake Predictions
Jesus did not foretell any one specific earthquake, but he did prophesy about a period of time when there would be particularly great and widespread earthquake activity.
When his disciples wanted to know, “What will be the sign of your presence and of the conclusion of the system of things?” Jesus told them, among other things: “There will be . . . earthquakes in one place after another.” (According to Matthew and Mark) The Gospel writer Luke adds that Jesus also said: “There will be great earthquakes.” He said that at the same time there would be large wars, food shortages and pestilences, and called these “a beginning of pangs of distress.” These anguished conditions, along with the others that were foretold, have occurred since the year 1914. Jesus also said that before one generation—the generation of 1914—had passed away, all the things he prophesied, including the coming of a “great tribulation” from God, would take place. A new order with a paradise earth would follow.—Matt. 6:9, 10; 24:3-8, 21, 34; Mark 13:3-8; Luke 21:7-11.
The “great earthquakes,” those occurring since 1914 in “one place after another,” verify the accuracy of this understanding of Jesus’ words. But some persons reason, ‘There have been “great earthquakes” in the past. Could not Jesus’ prediction of earthquakes be correctly interpreted as coming true in any generation?’
No. For one thing, as noted above, Jesus’ prediction of earthquakes occurs along with other woes, forming a composite “sign.” Further, the great earthquakes of the past were generally isolated events occurring years, even centuries, apart. There were not many of them in a single generation.
Uncertainties About Past Earthquakes
Nor do all historical records about “great” earthquakes of the past inspire confidence in their reliability. That was the view of noted earthquake cataloger John Milne. “In these catalogues,” we read in the 1939 edition of his book Earthquakes and Other Earth Movements (revised and rewritten by A. W. Lee), “there are uncertainties in the date, or even the years, for many of the ancient earthquakes. There are numerous inaccurate or obscure references in the original writings.” Vital facts about major quakes in previous centuries are often distorted, missing or wrong.—See, for instance, The Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, June 1914, regarding the Lisbon, Portugal, earthquake in 1755.
Certainty About This Generation
On the other hand, consider what “great earthquakes” we definitely know have occurred to the generation living since 1914. World War I, which began in that year, brought great stress on man. Earthquakes added to that burden. In January 1915 central Italy, for example, was shaken from the Adriatic Sea on the east to the Tyrrhenian Sea on the west. Some 29,000 persons were killed.
Right after the war much of the world was afflicted with massive food shortages and disease epidemics, as Jesus foretold. At the same time, there were more earthquakes. In December 1920 a quake struck Kansu, China. About 180,000 persons were killed. A report by Upton Close and Elsie McCormick reads: “Of that most remarkable series of seismic disturbances which occurred throughout the world in November and December, 1920, the most phenomenal was undoubtedly the Great Kansu earthquake of the late evening of December 16 . . . Likely no other earthquake in scientific annals ever changed the physical geography of the affected region to the extent of the Kansu cataclysm.”
Thereafter, the 1923 earthquake in Japan that took some 143,000 lives is described as “the worst disaster in [Japan’s] history.”
In just the ten-year period after World War I started, well over 350,000 persons were killed by earthquakes. Yes, war, pestilences, food shortage and earthquakes were clearly “a beginning of pangs of distress.” They reveal that mankind entered “the conclusion of the system of things” in 1914.
And the number of deaths due to earthquakes continues to mount. All together, over 900,000 persons have died in earthquakes since 1914! Can any single “generation” of the past equal that terrible record? Jesus’ prophecies about earthquakes apply now!
Since Jesus’ predictions about modern earthquakes are recorded in the Bible—God’s Word—does this mean that God has directly caused them?
Is God Directly Responsible?
There is no evidence that God has directly caused modern earthquakes. They are, rather, the result of natural processes in the earth. Actually, many deaths connected with earthquakes can be directly blamed on man—his greed. Men have, for instance, in spite of knowledge to the contrary, insisted on building cities in unsafe areas; insecure building practices are winked at. Saturday Review magazine claims: “In the decades following the 1906 earthquake [in San Francisco, California] local governments muted unfavorable research reports and generally played down the danger in order not to discourage construction and investment.” There is no need to blame God for man’s selfishness, is there?
But what about the Biblical text at Job 9:6? Does it not say of God that “he is making the earth go quaking from its place“? This reveals that God is capable of quaking the earth, but he does not directly cause them all. Yet he has specifically caused some earthquakes in the past in order to further his purpose.
For instance, the giving of the Law covenant at Sinai was accompanied by a shaking of the area. (Ex. 19:18; Ps. 68:8) Later, he opened the earth to swallow up the households of Korah, Dathan and Abiram because of the rebellion of those men against His servants Moses and Aaron.—Num. 16:16-35; 26:9-11.
God is also spoken of as making the earth shake in a figurative way. In the Bible book of Revelation earthquakes from God are used to picture great upheavals in the human earthly system of things.—Rev. 6:12-17; 16:1, 17-21.
The book of Ezekiel predicts a future quaking from God. It is mentioned in connection with the attack of “Gog of the land of Magog” against God’s people, spiritually called “Israel.” Ezekiel 38:19, 20 says: “And in my ardor, in the fire of my fury, I shall have to speak. Surely in that day a great quaking will occur in the soil of Israel. And because of me the fish of the sea and the flying creatures of the heavens and the wild beasts of the field and all the creeping things that are creeping on the ground and all mankind that are upon the surface of the ground will be bound to shiver, and the mountains will actually be thrown down and the steep ways will have to fall, and to the earth even every wall will fall.”
This chapter and the one following it in the Bible assure us that God will rid the earth of his enemies. While doing so, Jehovah, of course, could actually ‘throw down mountains,’ and level “every wall” in a literal “great quaking.” He no doubt will make use of many natural forces in “the day of fight and war.” (Job 38:22, 23) But whether this “great quaking” proves to be a literal quaking over the whole earth remains to be seen.
However, that there will soon be an outstanding divine intervention in human affairs is sure. Conviction as to the certainty of this is dependent, not on man’s ability to foretell future earthquakes, but on events—including earthquakes—that have already occurred in our day in fulfillment of Bible prophecy. Now is the time to act wisely to get out of the danger zone and into a safe place—into a condition approved by God in active association with his true worshipers.
In a few seconds a large quake can shake a major city to rubble and bury thousands of persons in their own homes, schools and stores. Thus, knowing precisely in advance where and when earthquakes will take place could save countless lives.
Men have for long observed “nature” and tried to predict earthquakes. They know, for example, that dogs begin howing before a quake and that the timing of some water geysers speeds up. But long-range warnings are vital so that large metropolitan areas can be evacuated in advance.
Recent findings have stimulated the hopes of some persons that the day is at hand when men may be able to foresee earthquakes. What have they found? Before that question is answered, let us discuss what earthquakes really are.
What Is an Earthquake?
Simply stated, an earthquake is a shaking or quaking of the earth. There have been numerous conjectures about their causes. Ancient Japanese mythology blamed the movement of a spider that carried the earth on its back. Mongolians anciently attributed earthquakes to the unsteady support of a giant hog.
Even in comparatively recent times scientific theories as to their cause have come and gone. And today? Earthquakes are believed to result from a sudden dislocation in the earth’s crust. What causes the shift? Opinions vary. But one view gaining wider acceptance is that the earth’s crust is not rigid, but is made up of a series of “plates” that move over the earth’s “mantle.”
According to this view, when these “plates” (which are several miles thick) collide, one slides under the other, bending rocks in the process. In other cases, the horizontal action of these “plates” passing one another exerts tremendous pressure on crystal rock. Such movements occur along a “fault” or fracture in the earth’s surface. Then, it is believed, when the crust can no longer tolerate the strain, it “snaps” into a new position.
If the region above the rupture is heavily populated, there may be destruction, injury and death. The extent of the damage depends on the quake’s “magnitude,” that is, the power it releases, its location and other factors. The “snapping” sets off jarring energy vibrations called shock waves that travel through the earth at the speed of several miles per second. These waves are detected by sensitive instruments called seismographs.
On the basis of seismograph readings the earthquake’s magnitude is expressed on the Richter Scale, a logarithmic scale. A reading of 7 signifies a disturbance ten times as great as a reading of 6, which is, itself, ten times as great as 5. Any reading over 6 is considered to be an earthquake of major magnitude. Only one or two earthquakes each year will reach 8.
But now, what about those recent findings that some people believe will make earthquake prediction possible?
Current Efforts at Prediction
Scientists from several nations are trying to use knowledge of how seismic waves travel through the earth to predict where and when earthquakes will occur. A recent discovery reveals that just before strained rock breaks, it is laced with tiny fractures, slightly swelling the rock. As certain seismic waves generated by small earthquakes travel through the earth, they seem to slow up in these particular rocks. Then, a short time before an earthquake, the waves resume normal speed. Knowing this pattern, scientists hope to be able to spot weaknesses in the earth’s crust.
Other experts are studying electrical resistance in subterranean rocks and the level of radon (a naturally occurring radioactive gas) in well water to find a key to earthquake prediction. There is also anticipation of being able to interpret imminent earthquakes from certain bulges detected on the surface of the earth from space.
However, even the most optimistic students of the subject are cautious not to say that any sure system of earthquake prediction is near at hand. As Dr. C. B. Archambeau, a professor of geophysics at Caltech, observes: “There is still a feeling that an earthquake is so complicated and diverse that it might be impossible to untangle all its phenomena to build a predictive system.” A Los Angeles Times science writer, George Alexander, put it more simply: “An infallible system is all but impossible.”
This is not to say that men cannot predict earthquakes with some degree of accuracy. They can.
Men Accurately Predict Some Earthquakes
They now believe that they know where most of the world’s earthquakes will probably occur—that is, the general areas. Some 80 percent take place in what is called “the ring of fire,” land bordering the Pacific Ocean. Most remaining shocks occur in a zone extending from the Mediterranean Sea across Asia.
Only in this broad sense can men predict earthquakes with a fair degree of accuracy. But even here there is room for error. No location on this planet is really earthquake-free. One of the most powerful series of quake shocks on record occurred in New Madrid, Missouri, in the United States Midwest in 1811-1812. Men would not ordinarily predict such an earthquake far from either of the two major quake zones.
But does not the Bible show that Jesus predicted earthquakes? Are his prophecies in this respect reliable?
Jesus’ Earthquake Predictions
Jesus did not foretell any one specific earthquake, but he did prophesy about a period of time when there would be particularly great and widespread earthquake activity.
When his disciples wanted to know, “What will be the sign of your presence and of the conclusion of the system of things?” Jesus told them, among other things: “There will be . . . earthquakes in one place after another.” (According to Matthew and Mark) The Gospel writer Luke adds that Jesus also said: “There will be great earthquakes.” He said that at the same time there would be large wars, food shortages and pestilences, and called these “a beginning of pangs of distress.” These anguished conditions, along with the others that were foretold, have occurred since the year 1914. Jesus also said that before one generation—the generation of 1914—had passed away, all the things he prophesied, including the coming of a “great tribulation” from God, would take place. A new order with a paradise earth would follow.—Matt. 6:9, 10; 24:3-8, 21, 34; Mark 13:3-8; Luke 21:7-11.
The “great earthquakes,” those occurring since 1914 in “one place after another,” verify the accuracy of this understanding of Jesus’ words. But some persons reason, ‘There have been “great earthquakes” in the past. Could not Jesus’ prediction of earthquakes be correctly interpreted as coming true in any generation?’
No. For one thing, as noted above, Jesus’ prediction of earthquakes occurs along with other woes, forming a composite “sign.” Further, the great earthquakes of the past were generally isolated events occurring years, even centuries, apart. There were not many of them in a single generation.
Uncertainties About Past Earthquakes
Nor do all historical records about “great” earthquakes of the past inspire confidence in their reliability. That was the view of noted earthquake cataloger John Milne. “In these catalogues,” we read in the 1939 edition of his book Earthquakes and Other Earth Movements (revised and rewritten by A. W. Lee), “there are uncertainties in the date, or even the years, for many of the ancient earthquakes. There are numerous inaccurate or obscure references in the original writings.” Vital facts about major quakes in previous centuries are often distorted, missing or wrong.—See, for instance, The Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, June 1914, regarding the Lisbon, Portugal, earthquake in 1755.
Certainty About This Generation
On the other hand, consider what “great earthquakes” we definitely know have occurred to the generation living since 1914. World War I, which began in that year, brought great stress on man. Earthquakes added to that burden. In January 1915 central Italy, for example, was shaken from the Adriatic Sea on the east to the Tyrrhenian Sea on the west. Some 29,000 persons were killed.
Right after the war much of the world was afflicted with massive food shortages and disease epidemics, as Jesus foretold. At the same time, there were more earthquakes. In December 1920 a quake struck Kansu, China. About 180,000 persons were killed. A report by Upton Close and Elsie McCormick reads: “Of that most remarkable series of seismic disturbances which occurred throughout the world in November and December, 1920, the most phenomenal was undoubtedly the Great Kansu earthquake of the late evening of December 16 . . . Likely no other earthquake in scientific annals ever changed the physical geography of the affected region to the extent of the Kansu cataclysm.”
Thereafter, the 1923 earthquake in Japan that took some 143,000 lives is described as “the worst disaster in [Japan’s] history.”
In just the ten-year period after World War I started, well over 350,000 persons were killed by earthquakes. Yes, war, pestilences, food shortage and earthquakes were clearly “a beginning of pangs of distress.” They reveal that mankind entered “the conclusion of the system of things” in 1914.
And the number of deaths due to earthquakes continues to mount. All together, over 900,000 persons have died in earthquakes since 1914! Can any single “generation” of the past equal that terrible record? Jesus’ prophecies about earthquakes apply now!
Since Jesus’ predictions about modern earthquakes are recorded in the Bible—God’s Word—does this mean that God has directly caused them?
Is God Directly Responsible?
There is no evidence that God has directly caused modern earthquakes. They are, rather, the result of natural processes in the earth. Actually, many deaths connected with earthquakes can be directly blamed on man—his greed. Men have, for instance, in spite of knowledge to the contrary, insisted on building cities in unsafe areas; insecure building practices are winked at. Saturday Review magazine claims: “In the decades following the 1906 earthquake [in San Francisco, California] local governments muted unfavorable research reports and generally played down the danger in order not to discourage construction and investment.” There is no need to blame God for man’s selfishness, is there?
But what about the Biblical text at Job 9:6? Does it not say of God that “he is making the earth go quaking from its place“? This reveals that God is capable of quaking the earth, but he does not directly cause them all. Yet he has specifically caused some earthquakes in the past in order to further his purpose.
For instance, the giving of the Law covenant at Sinai was accompanied by a shaking of the area. (Ex. 19:18; Ps. 68:8) Later, he opened the earth to swallow up the households of Korah, Dathan and Abiram because of the rebellion of those men against His servants Moses and Aaron.—Num. 16:16-35; 26:9-11.
God is also spoken of as making the earth shake in a figurative way. In the Bible book of Revelation earthquakes from God are used to picture great upheavals in the human earthly system of things.—Rev. 6:12-17; 16:1, 17-21.
The book of Ezekiel predicts a future quaking from God. It is mentioned in connection with the attack of “Gog of the land of Magog” against God’s people, spiritually called “Israel.” Ezekiel 38:19, 20 says: “And in my ardor, in the fire of my fury, I shall have to speak. Surely in that day a great quaking will occur in the soil of Israel. And because of me the fish of the sea and the flying creatures of the heavens and the wild beasts of the field and all the creeping things that are creeping on the ground and all mankind that are upon the surface of the ground will be bound to shiver, and the mountains will actually be thrown down and the steep ways will have to fall, and to the earth even every wall will fall.”
This chapter and the one following it in the Bible assure us that God will rid the earth of his enemies. While doing so, Jehovah, of course, could actually ‘throw down mountains,’ and level “every wall” in a literal “great quaking.” He no doubt will make use of many natural forces in “the day of fight and war.” (Job 38:22, 23) But whether this “great quaking” proves to be a literal quaking over the whole earth remains to be seen.
However, that there will soon be an outstanding divine intervention in human affairs is sure. Conviction as to the certainty of this is dependent, not on man’s ability to foretell future earthquakes, but on events—including earthquakes—that have already occurred in our day in fulfillment of Bible prophecy. Now is the time to act wisely to get out of the danger zone and into a safe place—into a condition approved by God in active association with his true worshipers.
Benefiting from History
BY ONE definition, history is a record of the events of man’s past. There is more than one way of looking at such history, of course. On the one hand, it is said that those who refuse to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it. On the other hand, many now assert that ‘history is bunk.’
A degree of truth is found in both views. If a person can learn from the past to avoid errors and direct his life in a wise way, history has served to his benefit. However, history can be used to lead one astray. A generation ago the Nazis used a perverted version of “history” to try to fortify their myth about a Germanic “superrace.” This contributed to disaster and death for millions.
To benefit from history one must have the proper outlook about the past. How is this gained?
Sources of History
Very importantly, by considering the real source of the information one is reading. Why do we say that? Because what is written in a modern history book is ordinarily about things that happened long before the author of that book was born. He must rely on information handed down in one way or another from the past. He may learn a few things from archaeology or geology. But the ideal source of information is usually a written record, and, preferably, one compiled by an eyewitness to the events he tells about.
For instance, if a modern historian alludes to the life of a certain Roman Caesar, you might ask yourself, Where did he get his information? Perhaps it came from the second-century Roman biographer Suetonius. Suetonius himself lived under the Caesars and also appears to have had ready access to the Imperial and Senatorial archives, as well as other contemporary documents. By reading the works of Suetonius oneself, of course, one learns what that ancient writer himself really said. One would thereby probably get to the closest available source of history about many Caesars.
But most records regarding people and events of the distant past are scanty. Therefore, to make a connected account from the available information the gaps must be filled in and the whole body of material tied together in some form. Where does the modern writer get what is needed to ‘fill in the gaps’?
If an expert in his subject, he may be able to make educated guesses as to how seemingly isolated bits of information should be brought together into a connected whole. Is this wrong? Not necessarily. It makes history books easier for the average person to read, providing smooth flow and coherence of thought. As long as the historian clearly informs his readers that such and such an event “may have” or “possibly” or “probably” took place in such and such a manner, he is being fair and, in a sense, helpful.
Some writers, however, merely accept someone else’s interpretation of what happened in the past and adopt that into their own material as actual fact. They fail to check older, firsthand sources. Misunderstandings about the past, yes, untruths, get passed down for decades in this manner and come to be accepted as fact, simply because so few have taken time or cared enough to examine the authenticity of the statements.
Consider an example. The ancient Babylonians of ten centuries and more before the Common Era are sometimes glamorized as possessing great astronomical abilities. They are often made to appear as having detailed knowledge of planetary movements due to their observation of the heavens. The entire Babylonian culture, as a result, is made to appear highly advanced and sophisticated. Surrounding peoples, conversely, are pictured as slower and are asserted to have made progress only when they came in contact with the Babylonians. But do the original sources substantiate this view?
Well, there is no doubt that the ancient Babylonians had some knowledge of the subject of astronomy. The astrological aspect of Babylonian religion clearly reflects this. However, the available factual material as respects Babylonian astronomy is found on clay tablets. What do these tablets reveal? One scholar, O. Neugebauer, who, in his profession, deals not with what other men assert about the ancient clay documents but with the actual documents themselves, says in The Exact Sciences in Antiquity:
“There is scarcely another chapter in the history of science where an equally deep gap exists between the generally accepted description of a period and the results which have slowly emerged from a detailed investigation of the source material. . . . Early Mesopotamian astronomy appeared to be crude . . . quite similar to contemporary Egyptian astronomy.”
The evidence shows that Babylonian astronomy was not carefully developed as a science until a few hundred years before the start of the Common Era.
When the Babylonians are stripped of the glamorized tinsel wrapping with which many modern writers popularize them, the real facts assert themselves. The ancient Babylonians, while still shown to be civilized, lose some of their assumed cultural luster in the eyes of modern readers of history.
The same process of embellishing the past also distorts ancient events and biographical accounts. Only by going to the earliest sources of ancient history can one be sure of finding the best available facts about the past. But more is necessary to benefit from the past than simply finding ancient records.
Is the Source Correct?
Even if a writer today is able to get to ancient sources and properly translate them, the view of history that the modern man presents may still be somewhat stilted. Why? Because the ancient sources on which he is depending may themselves be in error.
Remember, those ancient writers possibly lived at a much later period than when events that they describe took place. Or, they may have dwelt in an entirely different part of the world. So, like writers today, they, too, were compelled to accept information from other people, not one of whom was perfect.
Further, it should be noted that the ancient writers had the nationalistic prejudices, loyalties and religious feelings common to all men. These, too, surely influenced what was written.
As a case in point, look back at Tacitus, thought to be among the more accurate of the ancient men of letters. His cultivated Roman view shows decidedly strong prejudices. As a result, some of the information Tacitus presents is misleading.
Thus, he writes about the Jews in The Histories (Book V):
“Some say that the Jews were fugitives from the island of Crete, who settled on the nearest coast of Africa about the time when Saturn was driven from his throne by the power of Jupiter. Evidence of this is sought in the name. There is a famous mountain in Crete called Ida; the neighbouring tribe, the Idaei, came to be called Judaei by a barbarous lengthening of the national name.”
Documentation clearly revealing otherwise, from the Jews themselves, was available when Tacitus wrote in the first century C.E. Yet in this discussion he did not so much as acknowledge it.
How the prejudices of the ancient writers entered into their writings may be illustrated, too, by the controversy over an account by Josephus. This first-century C.E. Jewish writer says that Alexander the Great came to Jerusalem after his conquest of the cities of Tyre and Gaza. He was met with great pomp and shown the prophecies of Daniel about ‘one of the Greeks who would destroy the empire of the Persians.’ Alexander is said to have applied this prediction to himself. For these reasons the city of Jerusalem, Josephus shows, was spared ravaging by the Greek armies. On the other hand, Arrian, Alexander’s most noted biographer, does not mention such an event. Why such a discrepancy between the two writers?
Possibly, it has been argued by some, because of a strong anti-Jewish sentiment on the part of Arrian. Of course, his failure to mention Alexander’s visit to Jerusalem (if it did indeed occur) does not make Arrian inaccurate; an omission is not necessarily a mistake.
But, then, too, it must be recalled that Josephus was not unknown to exaggerate the truth in order to glorify his own Jewish nation. Since each man, Josephus and Arrian, is considered somewhat prejudiced, today we cannot say for sure that Alexander did or did not visit Jerusalem.
Because of the uncertainties regarding some of the material presented by the ancient writers, persons today may pronounce them all bigoted and entirely useless, of no benefit to modern students. But that would not be an entirely proper analysis.
There is no reason to believe that their motive in writing was necessarily bad. They no doubt often wrote factually what they learned, with no attempt purposely to falsify their reports. But even when the ancient writings are obviously pocked with bias and personal loyalties, certain descriptive material and circumstantial evidence may be correct and quite valuable.
Rather than giving up on history and pitching it all aside as useless, one needs to develop that important quality—discernment.
Discerning Beneficial History
Of necessity, most modern readers must rely on what others have learned from reading ancient historical sources. The average person does not have time to dig out all the sources and compare them, one against another, to determine the truth of a matter. Still, he does want to benefit from history. Therefore, the discerning individual will keep in view questions such as these when reading historical works:
How are the facts (which may be correct) being used by the writer? Does he have an ‘ax to grind’? Are you asked to believe something that you know from your own sense of justice is wrong? Or, are you told to accept as truthful matters that you know from your own experience run counter to human nature? Is the writer using the past in some way to glorify a system of religion or politics or a way of life that has already shown itself unable to cope fully with the problems facing mankind? Is there an attempt to glorify one nation or race unduly or to downgrade another? If so, a person with discernment knows that caution is definitely needed when reading such histories.
There is a source of ancient history, however, to which one can turn with full trust.
The Bible as History
That honest history is found in the Bible. The more intently a God-fearing person studies history the more he appreciates the value of the Bible’s historical narratives. It is the oldest connected history to which man has access. Historian H. E. Barnes admits: “The honor of having first produced a true historical narrative of ‘considerable scope . . . must be accorded to the Hebrews of ancient Palestine,” who were used to put together the Bible.
But, some ask, how can the Bible’s history be said to be so outstanding? Does it not glorify one nation, Israel? Does it not ask us to believe the incredible, even the miraculous?
It is true that much of the Bible concerns the history of Israel. But who can deny that the presentation of Israel in the Bible is an honest one? Israel’s bad characteristics, not just its good ones, are frankly acknowledged. The nation and her people are used to illustrate the penalties coming on anyone who refuses to live by God’s high standards. Bible history shows how God severely chastised Israel, eventually casting the nation off entirely as his special covenant people.
No, the Bible’s history does not glorify any one earthly nation or race. Rather, it plainly declares: “In every nation the man that fears [God] and works righteousness is acceptable to him.”—Acts 10:35.
It is true, too, that there are miraculous elements in its history. But before one casts it off for that reason, it should be remembered that the framework in which these miracles are found is definitely historical and believable. In what way? In that time and place are stated.
This can be illustrated with the Bible’s historical account about the opening of the Red Sea to allow the nation of Israel to leave Egypt. Some persons find this account, written by an eyewitness, Moses, hard to accept. Often the persons who reject it have never actually read the account closely for themselves.
But one who thoughtfully considers this material (found in Exodus chapters 12 through 15) for himself will observe that the names of persons and places are recorded.—Compare Numbers 33:1-8.
The time when Israel’s stay in Egypt was drawing to a close is also stated: “The dwelling of the sons of Israel, who had dwelt in Egypt, was four hundred and thirty years. And it came about at the end of the four hundred and thirty years, it even came about on this very day that all the armies of Jehovah went out of the land of Egypt.”—Ex. 12:40, 41; compare 1 Kings 6:1.
Thus, an entirely credible framework of time and place for the Red Sea incident is included in the Bible’s history. What else could any historian, living at any time, in any place, possibly have provided in his account to prove that he wrote down what he actually saw? Nothing. On what basis, then, can this Biblical account be set aside as nonhistorical? None!
The Bible’s historical accounts are reliable. They, like no other history, accurately emphasize the certainty of God’s Word of prophecy, the superiority of his moral laws and his continuing interest in creation. The greatest benefits come to men who acquaint themselves with the dealings of the God of history, found in the Bible.—Rom. 15:4.
A degree of truth is found in both views. If a person can learn from the past to avoid errors and direct his life in a wise way, history has served to his benefit. However, history can be used to lead one astray. A generation ago the Nazis used a perverted version of “history” to try to fortify their myth about a Germanic “superrace.” This contributed to disaster and death for millions.
To benefit from history one must have the proper outlook about the past. How is this gained?
Sources of History
Very importantly, by considering the real source of the information one is reading. Why do we say that? Because what is written in a modern history book is ordinarily about things that happened long before the author of that book was born. He must rely on information handed down in one way or another from the past. He may learn a few things from archaeology or geology. But the ideal source of information is usually a written record, and, preferably, one compiled by an eyewitness to the events he tells about.
For instance, if a modern historian alludes to the life of a certain Roman Caesar, you might ask yourself, Where did he get his information? Perhaps it came from the second-century Roman biographer Suetonius. Suetonius himself lived under the Caesars and also appears to have had ready access to the Imperial and Senatorial archives, as well as other contemporary documents. By reading the works of Suetonius oneself, of course, one learns what that ancient writer himself really said. One would thereby probably get to the closest available source of history about many Caesars.
But most records regarding people and events of the distant past are scanty. Therefore, to make a connected account from the available information the gaps must be filled in and the whole body of material tied together in some form. Where does the modern writer get what is needed to ‘fill in the gaps’?
If an expert in his subject, he may be able to make educated guesses as to how seemingly isolated bits of information should be brought together into a connected whole. Is this wrong? Not necessarily. It makes history books easier for the average person to read, providing smooth flow and coherence of thought. As long as the historian clearly informs his readers that such and such an event “may have” or “possibly” or “probably” took place in such and such a manner, he is being fair and, in a sense, helpful.
Some writers, however, merely accept someone else’s interpretation of what happened in the past and adopt that into their own material as actual fact. They fail to check older, firsthand sources. Misunderstandings about the past, yes, untruths, get passed down for decades in this manner and come to be accepted as fact, simply because so few have taken time or cared enough to examine the authenticity of the statements.
Consider an example. The ancient Babylonians of ten centuries and more before the Common Era are sometimes glamorized as possessing great astronomical abilities. They are often made to appear as having detailed knowledge of planetary movements due to their observation of the heavens. The entire Babylonian culture, as a result, is made to appear highly advanced and sophisticated. Surrounding peoples, conversely, are pictured as slower and are asserted to have made progress only when they came in contact with the Babylonians. But do the original sources substantiate this view?
Well, there is no doubt that the ancient Babylonians had some knowledge of the subject of astronomy. The astrological aspect of Babylonian religion clearly reflects this. However, the available factual material as respects Babylonian astronomy is found on clay tablets. What do these tablets reveal? One scholar, O. Neugebauer, who, in his profession, deals not with what other men assert about the ancient clay documents but with the actual documents themselves, says in The Exact Sciences in Antiquity:
“There is scarcely another chapter in the history of science where an equally deep gap exists between the generally accepted description of a period and the results which have slowly emerged from a detailed investigation of the source material. . . . Early Mesopotamian astronomy appeared to be crude . . . quite similar to contemporary Egyptian astronomy.”
The evidence shows that Babylonian astronomy was not carefully developed as a science until a few hundred years before the start of the Common Era.
When the Babylonians are stripped of the glamorized tinsel wrapping with which many modern writers popularize them, the real facts assert themselves. The ancient Babylonians, while still shown to be civilized, lose some of their assumed cultural luster in the eyes of modern readers of history.
The same process of embellishing the past also distorts ancient events and biographical accounts. Only by going to the earliest sources of ancient history can one be sure of finding the best available facts about the past. But more is necessary to benefit from the past than simply finding ancient records.
Is the Source Correct?
Even if a writer today is able to get to ancient sources and properly translate them, the view of history that the modern man presents may still be somewhat stilted. Why? Because the ancient sources on which he is depending may themselves be in error.
Remember, those ancient writers possibly lived at a much later period than when events that they describe took place. Or, they may have dwelt in an entirely different part of the world. So, like writers today, they, too, were compelled to accept information from other people, not one of whom was perfect.
Further, it should be noted that the ancient writers had the nationalistic prejudices, loyalties and religious feelings common to all men. These, too, surely influenced what was written.
As a case in point, look back at Tacitus, thought to be among the more accurate of the ancient men of letters. His cultivated Roman view shows decidedly strong prejudices. As a result, some of the information Tacitus presents is misleading.
Thus, he writes about the Jews in The Histories (Book V):
“Some say that the Jews were fugitives from the island of Crete, who settled on the nearest coast of Africa about the time when Saturn was driven from his throne by the power of Jupiter. Evidence of this is sought in the name. There is a famous mountain in Crete called Ida; the neighbouring tribe, the Idaei, came to be called Judaei by a barbarous lengthening of the national name.”
Documentation clearly revealing otherwise, from the Jews themselves, was available when Tacitus wrote in the first century C.E. Yet in this discussion he did not so much as acknowledge it.
How the prejudices of the ancient writers entered into their writings may be illustrated, too, by the controversy over an account by Josephus. This first-century C.E. Jewish writer says that Alexander the Great came to Jerusalem after his conquest of the cities of Tyre and Gaza. He was met with great pomp and shown the prophecies of Daniel about ‘one of the Greeks who would destroy the empire of the Persians.’ Alexander is said to have applied this prediction to himself. For these reasons the city of Jerusalem, Josephus shows, was spared ravaging by the Greek armies. On the other hand, Arrian, Alexander’s most noted biographer, does not mention such an event. Why such a discrepancy between the two writers?
Possibly, it has been argued by some, because of a strong anti-Jewish sentiment on the part of Arrian. Of course, his failure to mention Alexander’s visit to Jerusalem (if it did indeed occur) does not make Arrian inaccurate; an omission is not necessarily a mistake.
But, then, too, it must be recalled that Josephus was not unknown to exaggerate the truth in order to glorify his own Jewish nation. Since each man, Josephus and Arrian, is considered somewhat prejudiced, today we cannot say for sure that Alexander did or did not visit Jerusalem.
Because of the uncertainties regarding some of the material presented by the ancient writers, persons today may pronounce them all bigoted and entirely useless, of no benefit to modern students. But that would not be an entirely proper analysis.
There is no reason to believe that their motive in writing was necessarily bad. They no doubt often wrote factually what they learned, with no attempt purposely to falsify their reports. But even when the ancient writings are obviously pocked with bias and personal loyalties, certain descriptive material and circumstantial evidence may be correct and quite valuable.
Rather than giving up on history and pitching it all aside as useless, one needs to develop that important quality—discernment.
Discerning Beneficial History
Of necessity, most modern readers must rely on what others have learned from reading ancient historical sources. The average person does not have time to dig out all the sources and compare them, one against another, to determine the truth of a matter. Still, he does want to benefit from history. Therefore, the discerning individual will keep in view questions such as these when reading historical works:
How are the facts (which may be correct) being used by the writer? Does he have an ‘ax to grind’? Are you asked to believe something that you know from your own sense of justice is wrong? Or, are you told to accept as truthful matters that you know from your own experience run counter to human nature? Is the writer using the past in some way to glorify a system of religion or politics or a way of life that has already shown itself unable to cope fully with the problems facing mankind? Is there an attempt to glorify one nation or race unduly or to downgrade another? If so, a person with discernment knows that caution is definitely needed when reading such histories.
There is a source of ancient history, however, to which one can turn with full trust.
The Bible as History
That honest history is found in the Bible. The more intently a God-fearing person studies history the more he appreciates the value of the Bible’s historical narratives. It is the oldest connected history to which man has access. Historian H. E. Barnes admits: “The honor of having first produced a true historical narrative of ‘considerable scope . . . must be accorded to the Hebrews of ancient Palestine,” who were used to put together the Bible.
But, some ask, how can the Bible’s history be said to be so outstanding? Does it not glorify one nation, Israel? Does it not ask us to believe the incredible, even the miraculous?
It is true that much of the Bible concerns the history of Israel. But who can deny that the presentation of Israel in the Bible is an honest one? Israel’s bad characteristics, not just its good ones, are frankly acknowledged. The nation and her people are used to illustrate the penalties coming on anyone who refuses to live by God’s high standards. Bible history shows how God severely chastised Israel, eventually casting the nation off entirely as his special covenant people.
No, the Bible’s history does not glorify any one earthly nation or race. Rather, it plainly declares: “In every nation the man that fears [God] and works righteousness is acceptable to him.”—Acts 10:35.
It is true, too, that there are miraculous elements in its history. But before one casts it off for that reason, it should be remembered that the framework in which these miracles are found is definitely historical and believable. In what way? In that time and place are stated.
This can be illustrated with the Bible’s historical account about the opening of the Red Sea to allow the nation of Israel to leave Egypt. Some persons find this account, written by an eyewitness, Moses, hard to accept. Often the persons who reject it have never actually read the account closely for themselves.
But one who thoughtfully considers this material (found in Exodus chapters 12 through 15) for himself will observe that the names of persons and places are recorded.—Compare Numbers 33:1-8.
The time when Israel’s stay in Egypt was drawing to a close is also stated: “The dwelling of the sons of Israel, who had dwelt in Egypt, was four hundred and thirty years. And it came about at the end of the four hundred and thirty years, it even came about on this very day that all the armies of Jehovah went out of the land of Egypt.”—Ex. 12:40, 41; compare 1 Kings 6:1.
Thus, an entirely credible framework of time and place for the Red Sea incident is included in the Bible’s history. What else could any historian, living at any time, in any place, possibly have provided in his account to prove that he wrote down what he actually saw? Nothing. On what basis, then, can this Biblical account be set aside as nonhistorical? None!
The Bible’s historical accounts are reliable. They, like no other history, accurately emphasize the certainty of God’s Word of prophecy, the superiority of his moral laws and his continuing interest in creation. The greatest benefits come to men who acquaint themselves with the dealings of the God of history, found in the Bible.—Rom. 15:4.
Are Any Organs Really “Vestigial”?
FOR many years various organs of the human body were called “vestigial” by evolutionists, that is, the last vestiges of organs that supposedly once had a use, but were no longer needed because of the claimed advance up the evolutionary ladder. Of interest in this regard is the small gland that is shaped like a pinecone and hence called the “pineal” gland. Though it is located near the center of the brain, it is not part of the brain. “Until very recently” it was thought that “the pineal in man served no biologic purpose and was merely a vestige,” reported the journal Hospital Practice. Now the pineal has been shown “to possess a unique ability to produce melatonin.” This is a substance that affects the brain, the reproductive system, as well as the pituitary, adrenal and thyroid glands.
Scientists believe that in man the pineal gland “exerts a control over the body, specifically by regulating the body clock.” (Science Digest, September 1972) The pineal does this evidently by secreting various chemicals. Thus it is believed that the pineal gland may chemically supervise many of the involuntary activities of the human body, such as helping to make body temperatures increase during the daytime and decrease at night.
Another gland long thought to be useless is the thymus. In an article entitled “The ‘Useless’ Gland That Guards Our Health,” Reader’s Digest stated:
“For at least 2000 years, doctors have puzzled over the function of a pinkish-grey bit of tissue lying just below the neck and behind the breastbone—the thymus gland. . . . Modern physicians came to regard it, like the appendix, as a useless, vestigial organ which had lost its original purpose, if indeed it ever had one.
“In the last few years, however, the dogged detective work of a small band of Americans, Britons, Australians and Swedes have cracked the thymus enigma. These men have proved that, far from being useless, the thymus is really the master gland that regulates the intricate immunity system which protects us against infectious diseases. . . .
“But is the thymus the only organ regulating our immunity system? Recent experiments have led researchers to believe that the appendix, tonsils and adenoids [once these too were tagged as vestigial] may also figure in the antibody responses.”
Scientists believe that in man the pineal gland “exerts a control over the body, specifically by regulating the body clock.” (Science Digest, September 1972) The pineal does this evidently by secreting various chemicals. Thus it is believed that the pineal gland may chemically supervise many of the involuntary activities of the human body, such as helping to make body temperatures increase during the daytime and decrease at night.
Another gland long thought to be useless is the thymus. In an article entitled “The ‘Useless’ Gland That Guards Our Health,” Reader’s Digest stated:
“For at least 2000 years, doctors have puzzled over the function of a pinkish-grey bit of tissue lying just below the neck and behind the breastbone—the thymus gland. . . . Modern physicians came to regard it, like the appendix, as a useless, vestigial organ which had lost its original purpose, if indeed it ever had one.
“In the last few years, however, the dogged detective work of a small band of Americans, Britons, Australians and Swedes have cracked the thymus enigma. These men have proved that, far from being useless, the thymus is really the master gland that regulates the intricate immunity system which protects us against infectious diseases. . . .
“But is the thymus the only organ regulating our immunity system? Recent experiments have led researchers to believe that the appendix, tonsils and adenoids [once these too were tagged as vestigial] may also figure in the antibody responses.”
Watching the World 1
Effects of the Energy Crisis . . .
? Nearly every country has been strained in one way or another by recent Arab cutbacks in oil. Even in India retail gasoline costs increased by almost 50 percent, to $1.49 per gallon. There is also a shortage in natural gas. Particularly the industrialized nations of the U.S., western Europe and Japan are feeling the energy squeeze. Consider a few of the effects.
. . . On Automobiles
? Sunday driving is now banned in certain European countries to conserve fuel. Gasoline restrictions have also appeared in the U.S. and most speed limits there are now 55 miles per hour. The scarcity of petroleum and its rising price have increased small-car sales in recent months. Smaller cars go farther on each gallon of gas than do larger ones. Many persons are trading in big cars at an economic loss to buy smaller ones. Meanwhile, new big-car sales are slumping. In one thirty-day period ending in November their sales were 27 percent below the same period in 1972. Says a major auto sales analyst: “No one ever thought things would fall so far so fast.”
. . . On Other Industry
? U.S. industry’s unemployment rolls are longer due to layoffs because of the petroleum shortage. Fewer airline flights, for instance, mean that fewer pilots and ground crewmen are needed. Fewer skilled workers are needed to build airplanes. Also, such products as synthetic fibers (used in clothing) as well as plastics are in limited supply due to the shortage of natural gas, which is essential in their manufacture. In the brick industry, fuel normally accounts for 10 percent of production costs; now, due to the increase in the cost of fuel, it is responsible for 50 percent of the costs. And, says Business Week, “as the oil and gas shortage bites deeper, a host of products will disappear from the market, many of them cheap, low-profit items.”
. . . On the Stock Market
? During the first six weeks after the early October outbreak of war in the Middle East the Dow-Jones industrial stock averages fell by over 125 points. On one day, Monday, November 19, the drop of 28.67 points was the sharpest in eleven years and the fifth-largest day’s drop in history. Stock averages in Europe declined as much as 20 percent during October and November. The cause? A New York Times editorial reflects the view of many: “The sell-off on Wall Street clearly reflects fears of what the energy crisis . . . will do to economic conditions in the United States and abroad.”
. . . On Farming
? Modern farming methods require huge amounts of oil. In fact, Science magazine says, farming, as an industry, is the largest user of petroleum in the U.S. The shortages affect machinery, such as tractors and trucks, and petroleum-base fertilizers. It was recently estimated that the equivalent of 80 gallons of gasoline is required to produce just one acre of corn. The so-called green revolution, being pressed in many parts of the “less developed” world, uses similar high-energy crop-production techniques. Understandably, the magazine adds: “Problems have already occurred with green revolution crops, particularly problems related to pests. More critical problems are expected when there is a world energy crisis.”
. . . On Honesty
? “Black market” fuel, already a problem in the U.S., is expected to cost the government even more money in lost taxes during the oil shortage. How? Consider one way: Diesel fuel and number 2 home heating fuel are almost the same, chemically speaking. But, primarily because of taxes, heating fuel may sell for 26 cents per gallon; diesel fuel, for 43 cents. Truckers sometimes evade taxes by using home heating oil in their tanks. Fleet Owner, a trucking magazine, says that that trick alone costs the government one billion dollars a year in unpaid taxes.
“Churches Are in Trouble”
? A special study of fourteen Boston area churches—Catholic, Episcopalian, Unitarian, Baptist and others—says they are suffering from declining attendance and mounting costs. It notes: “The institutional church, regardless of denomination, faces a situation in the urban community that can be described only as disastrous.” At least two of the churches are now said to be considering the removal of their structures for housing and an office building. A follow-up report in the Boston Globe says that many local “clergymen agree with the premise of the study that inner-city churches are in trouble.”
A Baptist and the Bible
? Roy Essex is Baptist chaplain at the University of Toronto as well as chaplain and consultant with other organizations in that area. What does he think about the Bible? The Toronto Star reports: “I don’t go along with the Adam and Eve stuff. I find difficulty with Daniel and the lions’ den and other Old Testament stories.” He adds: “There is a lot of superstition still mixed up in what passes for religion. We need to separate the two.” His views are just the opposite of those of Jesus Christ and his apostles, who testified that they believed these accounts.—Matt. 19:4-6; 1 Cor. 15:45; Heb. 11:32, 33.
Fewer at Mass
? A survey published in The National Catholic Reporter shows that U.S. Catholic Church attendance suffered a “catastrophic” drop between July 1972 and July 1973. The number of Catholics attending church “weekly or almost weekly” dropped from 61 percent to 48 percent during that year. Among those over 50 years of age, the decline was from 76 percent to 55 percent; this latter tendency the surveyors called a ‘dramatic phenomenon.’ Writer William Reel says that this problem “threatens to bring down the whole institution.”
Catholics and Voodoo
? Over 90 percent of Brazil’s 100 million people are Catholics. But Raimundo Cintra, a priest at Rio de Janeiro’s Catholic University, says that 60 million Brazilians also actively practice voodoo. He thinks the church should study voodoo to discover why it attracts Brazil’s natives. He says: “We’re interested in utilizing voodoo’s positive aspects so our church can take better care of the people’s needs.” Catholic Church attendance in Brazil is dwindling, as are the number of its priests and seminary students. Voodoo believers, on the other hand, appear to be increasing.
Pollution Lingers
? Ever more pollution is being poured into the oceans. But now the lingering effects of such pollutants are better understood. Some time back a small oil spill took place in Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts. About 95 percent of the fish, crabs, lobsters and clams were dead within hours. Months later, small marine organisms still suffered toxic effects. Within eight months the area contaminated had grown to ten times the size of the original spill. Poisonous compounds were still present in sediments a year later. Reports a current Saturday Review/World: “In all, the evidence added up to a far more incriminating picture of the problems of oil than had been envisaged.”
More Cancer
? The number of deaths in the U.S. from cancer is increasing. In 1971 there were 161.4 deaths due to cancer out of every 100,000 deaths in the country. In 1972 the figure had risen to 166.8 deaths. This increase is about three times the annual average since 1950. Cancer authorities claim that 1.3 million Americans may be found to have cancer for the first time in 1974.
False Alarms
? The Baltimore, Maryland, Fire Department reports that in the one-year period ending with July 1973 it received 9,013 alarms from street fire-alarm boxes. Of these, 5,329 were false alarms! In New York city there were more than 77,000, false alarms during the eight months of 1973.
College Rapes
? There are more rapes and assaults now taking place on American college campuses. This increase is not imagined, according to H. T. Voye, editor of the Campus Law Enforcement Journal: “It’s not just a question of more women reporting it. It has happened.” What is behind the rape increase? Coed dormitories, for one thing, which allow almost anyone free access to virtually any part of a college campus. Hitchhiking girls are also vulnerable to attack. Authorities also connect the increase with a general rise in campus crime, ranging from stealing bicycles to muggings.
Work and Live
? A new report by the U.S. Veterans Administration indicates that a person is likely to live longer if he continues to work. Work, it is reasoned, makes people feel needed.
Gonorrhea Epidemic Continues
? World wide, gonorrhea is now said to be “almost out of control.” A recent medical symposium was told that there may have been up to two and a half million cases of the disease in the U.S. in 1972. A spokesman for the Center for Disease Control observes: “No significant infectious disease is more common than gonorrhea in the United States right now.” There, and elsewhere, “extra-genital gonorrheal infections” are occurring more frequently. This is gonorrhea in the throat or rectum, a result of homosexual or other perverted practices. Can the disease be stopped? According to the Montreal Star, experts at an international symposium held there “saw little hope of solving the problem short of a return to traditional sexual morality.”
1973 Tornadoes
? By late November the U.S. had already been struck by a record 990 tornadoes. They are reported to have killed seventy-five persons. Fierce tornadic winds, believed to reach a speed of 600 miles per hour in their vortex, have been known to drive wooden splinters through steel, lift railway cars into the air and level masonry buildings.
Alcoholic Mothers
? Chronically alcoholic women who are pregnant may bear children with serious birth defects, according to a study published in the medical journal The Lancet. It reports the cases of eight deformed children born to such women. All the children had what was considered below-normal intelligence and weight and were 20-percent shorter than average infants. Afflicted with a variety of physical defects, all are thought to be permanently retarded in their growth. Dr. David W. Smith of the University of Washington estimates that up to 20 percent of all alcoholic mothers may bear similar children.
Autos and Infant Safety
? In 1972 there were 370 infants less than one year of age who were killed in auto accidents. Pediatricians recommend that a small child be strapped into a special heavy plastic carrier attached to the front seat of the car. The child faces the rear. A raised back on the carrier keeps the child from being thrown against the windshield in case of an accident or sudden stop.
Sudden Death
? According to doctors at Stanford University, there is now an “epidemic” of sudden-death heart attacks in the United States. It currently claims 150,000 American lives every year. Doctors have identified certain ‘risk factors’—obesity, smoking, hypertension, elevated blood cholesterol and a family history of heart trouble.
Seafood Hepatitis
? Over two hundred cases of infectious hepatitis were reported from Houston, Texas, in late September. About the same time 14 persons in northwest Georgia contracted the disease. Both groups of people had eaten tainted oysters from Louisiana. Raw seafood from polluted waters, a common source of infectious hepatitis, can be safely consumed according to some—but only if it is thoroughly cooked.
? Nearly every country has been strained in one way or another by recent Arab cutbacks in oil. Even in India retail gasoline costs increased by almost 50 percent, to $1.49 per gallon. There is also a shortage in natural gas. Particularly the industrialized nations of the U.S., western Europe and Japan are feeling the energy squeeze. Consider a few of the effects.
. . . On Automobiles
? Sunday driving is now banned in certain European countries to conserve fuel. Gasoline restrictions have also appeared in the U.S. and most speed limits there are now 55 miles per hour. The scarcity of petroleum and its rising price have increased small-car sales in recent months. Smaller cars go farther on each gallon of gas than do larger ones. Many persons are trading in big cars at an economic loss to buy smaller ones. Meanwhile, new big-car sales are slumping. In one thirty-day period ending in November their sales were 27 percent below the same period in 1972. Says a major auto sales analyst: “No one ever thought things would fall so far so fast.”
. . . On Other Industry
? U.S. industry’s unemployment rolls are longer due to layoffs because of the petroleum shortage. Fewer airline flights, for instance, mean that fewer pilots and ground crewmen are needed. Fewer skilled workers are needed to build airplanes. Also, such products as synthetic fibers (used in clothing) as well as plastics are in limited supply due to the shortage of natural gas, which is essential in their manufacture. In the brick industry, fuel normally accounts for 10 percent of production costs; now, due to the increase in the cost of fuel, it is responsible for 50 percent of the costs. And, says Business Week, “as the oil and gas shortage bites deeper, a host of products will disappear from the market, many of them cheap, low-profit items.”
. . . On the Stock Market
? During the first six weeks after the early October outbreak of war in the Middle East the Dow-Jones industrial stock averages fell by over 125 points. On one day, Monday, November 19, the drop of 28.67 points was the sharpest in eleven years and the fifth-largest day’s drop in history. Stock averages in Europe declined as much as 20 percent during October and November. The cause? A New York Times editorial reflects the view of many: “The sell-off on Wall Street clearly reflects fears of what the energy crisis . . . will do to economic conditions in the United States and abroad.”
. . . On Farming
? Modern farming methods require huge amounts of oil. In fact, Science magazine says, farming, as an industry, is the largest user of petroleum in the U.S. The shortages affect machinery, such as tractors and trucks, and petroleum-base fertilizers. It was recently estimated that the equivalent of 80 gallons of gasoline is required to produce just one acre of corn. The so-called green revolution, being pressed in many parts of the “less developed” world, uses similar high-energy crop-production techniques. Understandably, the magazine adds: “Problems have already occurred with green revolution crops, particularly problems related to pests. More critical problems are expected when there is a world energy crisis.”
. . . On Honesty
? “Black market” fuel, already a problem in the U.S., is expected to cost the government even more money in lost taxes during the oil shortage. How? Consider one way: Diesel fuel and number 2 home heating fuel are almost the same, chemically speaking. But, primarily because of taxes, heating fuel may sell for 26 cents per gallon; diesel fuel, for 43 cents. Truckers sometimes evade taxes by using home heating oil in their tanks. Fleet Owner, a trucking magazine, says that that trick alone costs the government one billion dollars a year in unpaid taxes.
“Churches Are in Trouble”
? A special study of fourteen Boston area churches—Catholic, Episcopalian, Unitarian, Baptist and others—says they are suffering from declining attendance and mounting costs. It notes: “The institutional church, regardless of denomination, faces a situation in the urban community that can be described only as disastrous.” At least two of the churches are now said to be considering the removal of their structures for housing and an office building. A follow-up report in the Boston Globe says that many local “clergymen agree with the premise of the study that inner-city churches are in trouble.”
A Baptist and the Bible
? Roy Essex is Baptist chaplain at the University of Toronto as well as chaplain and consultant with other organizations in that area. What does he think about the Bible? The Toronto Star reports: “I don’t go along with the Adam and Eve stuff. I find difficulty with Daniel and the lions’ den and other Old Testament stories.” He adds: “There is a lot of superstition still mixed up in what passes for religion. We need to separate the two.” His views are just the opposite of those of Jesus Christ and his apostles, who testified that they believed these accounts.—Matt. 19:4-6; 1 Cor. 15:45; Heb. 11:32, 33.
Fewer at Mass
? A survey published in The National Catholic Reporter shows that U.S. Catholic Church attendance suffered a “catastrophic” drop between July 1972 and July 1973. The number of Catholics attending church “weekly or almost weekly” dropped from 61 percent to 48 percent during that year. Among those over 50 years of age, the decline was from 76 percent to 55 percent; this latter tendency the surveyors called a ‘dramatic phenomenon.’ Writer William Reel says that this problem “threatens to bring down the whole institution.”
Catholics and Voodoo
? Over 90 percent of Brazil’s 100 million people are Catholics. But Raimundo Cintra, a priest at Rio de Janeiro’s Catholic University, says that 60 million Brazilians also actively practice voodoo. He thinks the church should study voodoo to discover why it attracts Brazil’s natives. He says: “We’re interested in utilizing voodoo’s positive aspects so our church can take better care of the people’s needs.” Catholic Church attendance in Brazil is dwindling, as are the number of its priests and seminary students. Voodoo believers, on the other hand, appear to be increasing.
Pollution Lingers
? Ever more pollution is being poured into the oceans. But now the lingering effects of such pollutants are better understood. Some time back a small oil spill took place in Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts. About 95 percent of the fish, crabs, lobsters and clams were dead within hours. Months later, small marine organisms still suffered toxic effects. Within eight months the area contaminated had grown to ten times the size of the original spill. Poisonous compounds were still present in sediments a year later. Reports a current Saturday Review/World: “In all, the evidence added up to a far more incriminating picture of the problems of oil than had been envisaged.”
More Cancer
? The number of deaths in the U.S. from cancer is increasing. In 1971 there were 161.4 deaths due to cancer out of every 100,000 deaths in the country. In 1972 the figure had risen to 166.8 deaths. This increase is about three times the annual average since 1950. Cancer authorities claim that 1.3 million Americans may be found to have cancer for the first time in 1974.
False Alarms
? The Baltimore, Maryland, Fire Department reports that in the one-year period ending with July 1973 it received 9,013 alarms from street fire-alarm boxes. Of these, 5,329 were false alarms! In New York city there were more than 77,000, false alarms during the eight months of 1973.
College Rapes
? There are more rapes and assaults now taking place on American college campuses. This increase is not imagined, according to H. T. Voye, editor of the Campus Law Enforcement Journal: “It’s not just a question of more women reporting it. It has happened.” What is behind the rape increase? Coed dormitories, for one thing, which allow almost anyone free access to virtually any part of a college campus. Hitchhiking girls are also vulnerable to attack. Authorities also connect the increase with a general rise in campus crime, ranging from stealing bicycles to muggings.
Work and Live
? A new report by the U.S. Veterans Administration indicates that a person is likely to live longer if he continues to work. Work, it is reasoned, makes people feel needed.
Gonorrhea Epidemic Continues
? World wide, gonorrhea is now said to be “almost out of control.” A recent medical symposium was told that there may have been up to two and a half million cases of the disease in the U.S. in 1972. A spokesman for the Center for Disease Control observes: “No significant infectious disease is more common than gonorrhea in the United States right now.” There, and elsewhere, “extra-genital gonorrheal infections” are occurring more frequently. This is gonorrhea in the throat or rectum, a result of homosexual or other perverted practices. Can the disease be stopped? According to the Montreal Star, experts at an international symposium held there “saw little hope of solving the problem short of a return to traditional sexual morality.”
1973 Tornadoes
? By late November the U.S. had already been struck by a record 990 tornadoes. They are reported to have killed seventy-five persons. Fierce tornadic winds, believed to reach a speed of 600 miles per hour in their vortex, have been known to drive wooden splinters through steel, lift railway cars into the air and level masonry buildings.
Alcoholic Mothers
? Chronically alcoholic women who are pregnant may bear children with serious birth defects, according to a study published in the medical journal The Lancet. It reports the cases of eight deformed children born to such women. All the children had what was considered below-normal intelligence and weight and were 20-percent shorter than average infants. Afflicted with a variety of physical defects, all are thought to be permanently retarded in their growth. Dr. David W. Smith of the University of Washington estimates that up to 20 percent of all alcoholic mothers may bear similar children.
Autos and Infant Safety
? In 1972 there were 370 infants less than one year of age who were killed in auto accidents. Pediatricians recommend that a small child be strapped into a special heavy plastic carrier attached to the front seat of the car. The child faces the rear. A raised back on the carrier keeps the child from being thrown against the windshield in case of an accident or sudden stop.
Sudden Death
? According to doctors at Stanford University, there is now an “epidemic” of sudden-death heart attacks in the United States. It currently claims 150,000 American lives every year. Doctors have identified certain ‘risk factors’—obesity, smoking, hypertension, elevated blood cholesterol and a family history of heart trouble.
Seafood Hepatitis
? Over two hundred cases of infectious hepatitis were reported from Houston, Texas, in late September. About the same time 14 persons in northwest Georgia contracted the disease. Both groups of people had eaten tainted oysters from Louisiana. Raw seafood from polluted waters, a common source of infectious hepatitis, can be safely consumed according to some—but only if it is thoroughly cooked.
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